Lose Gilchrest, lose his seat, GOP is warned

Scramble to replace 17-year District 1 incumbent has Dems eager

The scenario presents Maryland Republicans with a dilemma like the one faced by Democrats in last year’s gubernatorial race: Strong and well-financed candidates dueling for the nomination could be left financially depleted and politically battered heading into the general election.

That was before Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan bowed out of the race, giving Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley a clear path to the nomination.

But it appears the Eastern Shore district is unlikely to avoid the internecine battles.

‘‘It just concerns me that when we have a chance to hold the seat, we’re going to be guilty of giving the seat up, not the Democrats taking it,” said Dorchester County Councilwoman Effie M. Elzey, a four-term Republican. ‘‘We’ve not learned to do what the Democrats do for the good of the party. ... While we’re being petty, the Democrats walk off with the prize, and that’s what I’m afraid is going to end up happening.”

The 2002 Democrat-engineered redistricting was thought to ensure the seat would be one of two in Maryland that would remain red — the other is the 6th District in Western Maryland.

But Democrats believe they can swipe it next year.

The party is staking its hopes on Queen Anne’s County State’s Attorney Frank M. Kratovil Jr., the strongest of four candidates vying for the Democratic nomination. It is also banking on a GOP primary that will leave the victor broke and bruised.

‘‘To have a strong candidate who’s effectively raising money and combining that with the three most prominent Republicans in the district beating each other up, you really couldn’t ask for a better situation for Democrats,” said Queen Anne’s County Commissioner Gene M. Ransom III (D).

GOP do-si-do

Gilchrest (R-Dist. 1) of Kennedyville faces his biggest test since 1992, when he narrowly defeated U.S. Rep. Charles Thomas ‘‘Tom” McMillen (D), whose district lines were redrawn, forcing the incumbents to square off.

State Sens. Andrew P. Harris and E.J. Pipkin are hoping to capitalize on Gilchrest’s moderate leanings in a staunchly conservative district.

Harris (R-Dist. 7) of Cockeysville, keying on Gilchrest’s vote in support of the Democrat-backed Iraq troop withdrawal plan, has charged for months that the nine-term incumbent no longer represents the voters’ conservative values. He has been raking in campaign cash from right-wing allies like the Club for Growth and collecting endorsements from top-tier Maryland Republicans.

‘‘The Wayne Gilchrest that was elected 17 years ago is not the same Wayne Gilchrest that’s running for re-election this time,” Harris said.

Meanwhile, Pipkin (R-Dist. 36) of Elkton, the newcomer to the race — he declared just last week — has deep pockets and will tout his crusades against taxes and utility giants. Since entering the race, Pipkin has debuted radio and television ads, sent out one mailing and recorded a ‘‘robo-call,” demonstrating his ability to make a quick impact.

‘‘Away from the political environment, my timing is perfect,” Pipkin said. ‘‘This is when people begin to look at what we’re going to do in the upcoming primaries.”

But Pipkin said his campaign is still a work in progress. No fundraisers have been planned and he hasn’t set a fundraising goal.

Even so, the primary campaign could be one of the most expensive in Maryland congressional history. Harris said he has already surpassed the $750,000 mark, and Pipkin spent $2 million of his own in a failed 2004 bid against U.S. Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D) of Baltimore.

The pricey race prompted Gilchrest to drop his long-held aversion to accepting PAC money at a fundraiser in Washington on Thursday hosted by U.S. House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio).

That decision illustrates the need for public financing in congressional races, said David A. Donnelly, national campaigns director for Public Campaign Action Fund, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that aims to eliminate special-interest money in elections.

‘‘It’s clear that the escalating cost of running for office forces candidates to do things they’d rather not do,” he said. ‘‘The fault here is most squarely placed at the feet of the system itself. There are good people caught in an awful system.”

To combat Harris’ and Pipkin’s treasuries, Gilchrest had little choice but to accept PAC money, said campaign spokesman Tony Caligiuri. He blamed Club for Growth for ‘‘trying to buy this election,” saying Eastern Shore voters don’t take kindly to outside interference.

The intra-party scrum has also put national Republicans in an awkward position. The National Republican Congressional Committee generally supports incumbents, but Chairman Tom Cole of Oklahoma isn’t stepping into contested primaries in most cases, said NRCC Deputy Communications Director Julie Shutley.

‘‘The NRCC will be working with Wayne Gilchrest to ensure this seat stays in the Republican column,” she said. However, Cole personally endorsed Gilchrest earlier this year.

Now is the time

Democrats are rooting for a bloody GOP primary that could give them a better chance to steal a seat once thought unattainable.

Maryland’s Democratic heavyweights are going to bat for Kratovil. O’Malley and Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler are hosting fundraisers outside the district for him this month.

It’s an uphill climb for a Democrat to win District 1, but now is the time, Kratovil said.

Regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, he said, ‘‘Given the view of the country right now and given the moderate mainstream values of this district, I think a strong Democrat has an opportunity to win.”

Unseating Gilchrest puts a safe GOP seat at risk, Caligiuri said. ‘‘That’s probably the worst tragedy of this whole thing, speaking from a Republican perspective.”

Not everyone agrees.

‘‘It’s still a Republican territory even at a time when Republicans aren’t well-liked nationally,” said Nathan L. Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

The big question is whether the GOP can unite after the primary, said John Bartkovich, chairman of the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee.

But, he said, the top of the Democratic ticket will draw the conservative base to the polls and boost the Republican nominee.

Harris likens the race to last year’s Democratic comptroller primary when Peter V.R. Franchot bested incumbent William Donald Schaefer and Anne Arundel County Executive Janet S. Owens and coasted to victory in the general election over a little-known Republican.

‘‘This race is the Franchot race in reverse. This is the person identified with the base of his party challenging an incumbent and a second challenger, both of whom are viewed as more moderate,” Harris said, labeling his chief foes as middle-of-the-road Republicans. ‘‘Just as Maryland was not ready to elect a Republican comptroller, the 1st Congressional District is not going to be ready to elect a Democratic Congressman.”

The best way to ensure a GOP victory, said Preston Padden, an Oxford resident who is a Washington lobbyist for Walt Disney Co., is to back Gilchrest. ‘‘I think Wayne and the 1st District are an absolutely perfect match.”