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Whenever Maryland considers new tax revenue, Montgomery County lawmakers often complain that the state's richest and most populous jurisdiction will bear the brunt.

House Majority Leader Kumar P. Barve offers a review that if you look at recent tax increases and slots, maybe Montgomery won't come out so bad.

Barve cautions that his numbers are "not gospel." For one thing, he combines current fiscal year projections on taxes with estimates on slots revenue for four years from now.

But the figures, part of a presentation to the Rockville Mid-County Democratic Breakfast Club on Monday, reveal that the tax bite out of Montgomery should be in line with the population when you combine taxes and slots.

On the one hand, Montgomery County is expected to pay $197 million more in income, sales, titling, tobacco and corporate income taxes, which were passed during the 2007 special session. Add $85.7 million for "millionaires tax" — which was passed in 2008 as a replacement for the computer services tax — and Montgomery contributes $282.7 million.

That amounts to about 21.6 percent of the $1.3 billion in taxes raised, for a county with 17 percent of the state's population.

It's that kind of discrepancy that prompts legislative objections. But factor in slots. Barve assumed Montgomery County residents would play one-armed bandits about as much as they play the lottery — 9.1 percent of the state's total revenue. That would come to nearly $124 million of the projected $1.36 billion slots take in 2013.

Combine those numbers, and the county is providing 15.3 percent of the slots and taxes, a smaller percentage than the percentage of population.

Prince George's County, by comparison, plays the lottery more and therefore might play slots more. Its residents would pay 16.3 percent of the total revenue, and its population represents less than 15 percent of the state's population.

Another problem with the analysis is that before the state collects much in the way of slots money, the "millionaires tax" expires. The levy — 6.25 percent of income over $1 million — is expected to generate $209 million statewide in this fiscal year, with $85.7 million coming from Montgomery millionaires.

Its passage included a three-year sunset. If Maryland extends the tax beyond the sunset, Barve said it would be the first time the state did not phase out a tax as promised.

Besides, it will be a hard tax to collect, he said.

Some millionaires have the luxury of owning multiple homes. It would be easy for them to tell their accountants to switch their primary residence from Maryland to, say, Delaware, which has lower income taxes.

"We don't have enough police officers and accountants to sit outside of homes in Potomac and take note of how many times they come and go compared with their home in Delaware," Barve said.

Most states that have enacted similar taxes have seen them decline over time. If the trends are positive, the temptation may be strong to extend the tax, he said.