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To my shock and dismay, I read last summer on Politico.com that a health policy activist had hanged in effigy freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil of Maryland's Eastern Shore. The episode brought to mind gruesome stories about the lynching of blacks in the Salisbury area during the 1930s.

I was also shocked to learn that the perpetrator of this insult to the congressman was a diehard, rightwing opponent of health care reform. I was not surprised that the extreme right would resort to such tactics. I was surprised that they would target Kratovil.

Progressive supporters of health care reform, not conservatives, have a real beef with Kratovil, who voted against the Democratic health care bill in the House. Kratovil also announced his intention to vote nay on the bill, in advance. This made it more difficult for the House leadership to put together a winning coalition on the legislation, which ultimately passed by the eyelash margin of 220 to 215.

I am not suggesting that progressives hang Kratovil in effigy. I am suggesting that progressive Democrats in Maryland should carefully consider their options when Kratovil comes up for re-election next year. His race will likely be Maryland's only tightly contested general election for Congress.

Should progressive Democrats put their time and resources into backing Kratovil, or let him figuratively twist slowly, slowly in the wind? My answer is: wait and see. Progressives should not abandon Kratovil, but should put him on probation for six months to see how he responds to upcoming issues. If the Senate passes health care legislation, Kratovil will even have another vote on a bill that will emerge from a Senate-House conference committee.

Kratovil is a member of the some 52-person Blue Dog Coalition of conservative Democratic members of the U. S. House. Although not a unified ideological bloc, the Blue Dogs for the most part have sought to stymie progressive reforms on issues such as stimulus spending, business regulation, global warming, health care, and foreign policy. The Blue Dogs are a major reason why Barack Obama has not been more of a transformational president during his first 300 days in office.

Members of the Blue Dog Coalition sold out a woman's right to choose safe and legal abortions in an amendment to House health care bill sponsored by Democrat Bart Stupak of Michigan and passed with the support of most Blue Dogs and Republicans. The Stupak amendment bars women from abortion coverage under the public option and even under their own private health insurance plans, if they obtained their plan with help from federal subsidies. The restrictions on private insurance alone affect many millions of women with household incomes up to $88,000 for a family of four.

Kratovil, however, is not a typical Blue Dog. He voted against the Stupak amendment and generally has backed a woman's right to choose safe and legal abortions. He voted against the first, more expensive version of the Obama economic stimulus bill, but voted for the second slightly trimmed down bill. He voted for legislation designed to curb greenhouse gas emissions and backs subsidies for alternative forms of energy. However, he also favors increased drilling for oil and gas within the United States.

Overall, Kratovil has voted with his fellow House Democrats about 85 percent of the time. His predecessor Wayne Gilchrest, one of the most liberal Republican members of the House, voted with Democrats only 35 percent of the time in 2008, according to Congressional Quarterly.

Kratovil represents a conservative district on Maryland's Eastern Shore. The district voted for John McCain over Barack Obama by a whopping 58 percent to 40 percent. Kratovil beat conservative Republican Andy Harris by less than 1 percent of the vote in 2008, even after Gilchrest crossed party lines to endorse his candidacy.

Kratovil also had considerable support from progressives in his 2008 campaign. Labor Political Action Committees contributed $185,000 to his election campaign and mostly liberal ideological PACs contributed $208,000.

Kratovil will never be a progressive's dream candidate. Still, his voting record may well be the best can progressives can expect from anyone representing Maryland's Eastern Shore. Kratovil, moreover, is far preferable to a rightwing Republican like Harris. It is not time for progressives to bail out on backing Kratovil in 2010. Wait and see is the best policy.

Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at American University and a national political analyst. His e-mail address is lichtman@

american.edu.