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With the national economy growing and stock market gains in the third quarter, the outlook for retailers in the state during the key holiday season is improved over last year, according to a survey released this week by the Maryland Retailers Association.
The organization is forecasting a 1 to 1.5 percent gain in holiday sales this year over last year. Maryland retailers saw a 5 percent decline last year as the economy nosedived, and there was a smaller drop in 2007, said Tom Saquella, MRA president.
"The worst is over, and things are starting to turn," Saquella said. "But retailers still face a long road to recovery."
Shop owners and managers themselves are more upbeat than last year, with more than half saying in a Maryland retailers survey that they are optimistic about this season. Last year, less than 20 percent of respondents expressed such optimism.
Sales at the Dancing Bear Toys and Gifts in downtown Frederick are "way up" so far, said owner Tom England, who expects that trend to continue throughout the holiday season. The store sells toys that do not require batteries; among the more popular sellers are science kits, games and puppets.
"People are tired of the same old thing," England said.
Last year was so lousy that it's hard to imagine sales won't improve this season, said Mike Brey, president of Laurel-based Brey Corp., which runs Hobby Works shops in Rockville, Laurel, Bel Air and Fairfax, Va. The stores sell model trains, remote-control cars and science kits, among other items.
"We're forecasting a solid Christmas season," Brey said. "Sales should be slightly greater than last year."
Still, the company has a ways to go to see holiday revenue at the level of 2006, the last year when the nation was not in a recession during the holiday season, he said.
At the open-air Boulevard at the Capital Centre in Largo, entertainment and dining venues have seen high sales lately, said Ken Baker, general manager for the center. He expected new products in the smart phone market to draw people toward those stores, as well.
"Sometimes as the Christmas season draws nearer, people become more gracious and want to spend," Baker said. "Anytime the weather is good, we see a good showing of people. They love walking through the center."
Looking for great deals
Being 65 percent to 70 percent retail outlets and factory stores, Arundel Mills is well-positioned for this holiday season, said Wendy Ellis, director of mall marketing and business development.
"Shoppers still want the brand names, they just don't want to pay full price for them," Ellis said. "Arundel Mills' retailers offer those great deals."
At the Mall at Prince Georges, "a ton of people" shopped there during Halloween, said Victoria Clark, marketing director. "So if that's any indication of the season to come, we think it will be good," she added.
Many malls offer events, Santa visits and promotions. The Mall at Prince George's is gearing up for its Holiday Unwrapped event on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, offering shoppers the chance to win $25,000. Black Friday will begin at 5 a.m., with goody bags provided to the first 800 shoppers.
"Customers are still on budget; it's not business as usual. People are still holding onto those credit cards," Clark said. "But we are seeing customers coming out for those early sales."
Westfield Wheaton mall is offering a "12 Days of Shopping" series of promotions that includes signing up on Black Friday for a chance to win one of 12 shopping sprees valued at $5,000 each. Bowie Town Center is also going the promotional route with its Shop Smarter Savings program.
The new Forman Mills discount clothing store in Hyattsville, which opens Thanksgiving Day from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m., hopes to compete with the nearby Wal-Mart and Target stores.
"The middle-income consumer is trading down," said Rick Forman, CEO of the New Jersey chain, adding that people are shifting from more expensive stores to moderate department stores. "It's cool to save money now."
Electronics still strong
Electronics is still a strong area, and more national chains such as Sears Holdings Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores are boosting their electronics departments, Saquella noted.
Besides electronics, Clark expects solid sales to come from children's clothing, denim products, video games and wireless products.
Good sellers at Hobby Works include educational toys and science-related items such as robotics kits and model trains, Brey said. Some fresh items that are doing well are Cobi blocks, which are similar to Lego blocks, and magnetic Buckyballs.
Scott McKinney, a sales operator at Best Buy in Frederick, expects the more popular sellers to include video game systems like the Nintendo Wii, which has seen a drop in price, along with Netbooks.
Among the stores that are popular with shoppers at the Francis Scott Key Mall in Frederick is McCutcheon's Apple Products, a Frederick business that offers locally made products like fruit butters and preserves, said mall marketing director Christina Steinbrenner. McCutcheon's operates a shop in the mall only during the holiday season.
The mall has seen a "little bit of an uptick" in sales this year, Steinbrenner said. "Our main focus is convenience and value," she said.
Retailers are also maintaining very tight inventories, Saquella said, so consumers who want the best selection should get out there early.
The Internet is expected to be a big tool for buying and comparison shopping once again this holiday season. More online shoppers will use social media this year to find out what friends and family want, according to research by the Opinion Research Corporation and Yesmail.
