Where Ehrlich lost

Friday, Nov. 17, 2006

Blair Lee

The volume and nature of absentee ballots made this year’s elections unique. Usually, absentee ballots are few and generally reflect the same voting patterns as the in-person vote. But this year, both parties strongly encouraged absentee voting, which, thanks to a law change, no longer required a voter’s excuse.

As a result, some 150,000 absentee votes were cast, about 9 percent of the total vote. And with that many votes still outstanding, analyzing the election results was pointless until the absentees were finally counted this week.

The data is interesting. Despite a two-to-one Democratic registration edge, the absentees broke in the Republicans’ favor significantly changing the final results. For instance, instead of narrowly winning Baltimore County by 480 votes, as the press reported, Gov. Bob Ehrlich’s victory margin was more than 8,000 votes. And legislative races in Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties, thought to be Democratic wins, turned into Republican victories. Also, Montgomery County’s sole Republican delegate, Jean Cryor, left for dead after Election Day, is now within 49 votes of victory.

Analysis

With most votes counted (some provisionals and overseas still remain), let’s take 2006’s unofficial governor’s race results and compare them to 2002’s official results for differences in voter turnout and victory margins.

Remember that 2002 was a much different political climate; the 9⁄11 attacks were fresh in mind, there was no Iraq war and President Bush had high approval ratings.

In Maryland, it was Democrats who suffered from scandal and conflict. Gov. Parris Glendening was wildly unpopular due to a messy divorce, a sex scandal and his raw attempt to grab the university chancellor’s job. Meanwhile, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was trying to become the first woman and the first lieutenant governor to win a governor’s race in the state. Also, the Democratic Party was in turmoil as Glendening ran an opponent against Comptroller Don Schaefer and Townsend picked a white Republican as her running mate.

Voter turnout

Surprisingly, voter turnout was lower this year (56 percent) than in 2002 (61 percent). Question: ‘‘Whose voters stayed home?” The answer: ‘‘Both parties.”

Red counties: Turnout in Ehrlich’s base, especially the Big Five (Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford and Howard counties) dropped significantly. The 2002 turnout in some of these counties reached into the high 60’s but dropped by an average four or five points this year. Presumably, these were former Ehrlich voters who, for whatever reasons, didn’t vote. In Baltimore County, Ehrlich’s home, 2,093 fewer votes were cast in this year’s governor’s race than in 2002.

In hindsight, it’s clear that the Red counties’ huge voter turnout four years ago was an aberration. Pro-Ehrlich and anti-KKT sentiment spurred record participation that worked to Ehrlich’s favor but was almost impossible to replicate. This year’s Red county turnout looked more like 1998’s when Glendening soundly defeated Ellen Sauerbrey.

Blue counties: The 2006 governor’s race turnout in the Democratic heartland was even worse than in the Red counties (Baltimore city, 45 percent; Montgomery, 59 percent; Prince George’s, 50 percent).

What does it mean when Martin O’Malley’s city casts 11,685 fewer votes in 2006 than in 2002? Were the stay-at-homes disillusioned blacks who didn’t like either candidate or was it the city’s population loss? Meanwhile, Prince George’s with 68,000 more registered voters than four years ago, cast only 3,118 additional votes. And Montgomery’s total governor’s race vote was almost identical to 2002’s. Unless all these Blue county non-voters were Republicans it appears that the diminished turnout was a wash between Blues and Reds, not the critical factor in Ehrlich’s loss.

Victory margin

Blue counties: Ehrlich got slaughtered in the Blue counties this year but not much worse than in 2002. His total vote in Baltimore city, Prince George’s and Montgomery dropped by only 13,710 votes compared to four years ago. And O’Malley only got 2,799 more votes in the Blues than KKT did in 2002. That’s only a 16,509-vote swing. Yes, O’Malley is governor because he out-polled Ehrlich in the Blue counties by 270,371 votes (184,001 to 454,372), more than double his 108,117 statewide victory margin. But in 2002, KKT ran up similar Blue county margins only to lose elsewhere. The big shift between 2002 and 2006 took place in the Red counties, not the Blues.

Red counties: Bob Ehrlich won all the same Red counties this year (except Charles and Howard) that he won against KKT but by much slimmer margins. Four years ago, he won by more than 60 percent in 19 counties (and by more than 70 percent in six of those), this year he won by more than 60 percent in only 10 counties (and by more than 70 percent in only one of those).

And in the Big Five Red counties, Ehrlich actually got 48,978 votes fewer than in 2002 while O’Malley won 70,930 votes more than KKT did in 2002. That’s a 119,908-vote swing, slightly more than O’Malley’s 108,117 statewide victory margin out of more than 1.7 million votes cast.

Like his 2002 Red county voter turnouts, Ehrlich’s astronomical Red county victory margins against KKT were almost impossible to duplicate. Ehrlich won four years ago because he recognized that 2002 was a ‘‘perfect storm” for Republicans. Conversely, he lost in 2006 because it was a Democratic year in a Democratic state.

As the data suggests, Ehrlich’s political miracle was winning in 2002, not losing in 2006.

Blair Lee is CEO of the Lee Development Group in Silver Spring.