Friday, Nov. 14, 2008
Avoiding gutter balls
Rascovar On Politics Barry Rascovar |
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Frank "Landslide" Kratovil signaled this week his Mission: Impossible assignment was complete. He beat long odds and now gets to commute to Washington as a member of Maryland's congressional delegation.
His victory margin over Republican Andy Harris topped 2,100 votes. That's cutting it close, but in politics close doesn't count. You either win or you lose, and Kratovil was the one giving the victory speech this week.
One piece of advice for the 40-year-old Democrat as he prepares for his move to Washington: Don't take a long-term lease on an apartment near Capitol Hill. Retaining the First Congressional District seat could be difficult.
Kratovil will be representing a very conservative constituency. Nearly half of the 355,000 First District citizens who went to the polls opposed his election. He wasn't nearly conservative enough for them.
Every time the freshman congressman casts a vote, his Republican foes will take note. He's walking a tightrope.
Kratovil's problem symbolizes the hazard his party's titular leader, Barack Obama, faces in governing this country. If Obama follows through on his sweeping, liberal campaign agenda, Frank Kratovil and other House Democrats representing conservative districts are at risk.
How many times can Kratovil back liberal Obama programs that infuriate conservatives back home? Not many. After all, his 0.6 percent margin of victory hardly constitutes a mandate. First District voters may want change, but not the revolutionary kind Obama's far-left supporters seek.
To win re-election in just two years, Kratovil must chart a moderate-centrist course in the House. He's got to color his voting record a vibrant light-blue — loyal to Obama and the Democrats on important bills but with a decided conservative tilt.
If he becomes a knee-jerk acolyte for Obama's programs he'll be branded a deep-blue, left-leaning Democrat. Kratovil then would be easy pickings for Republicans in 2010.
In Congress, Democrats representing conservative districts are known as "Blue-Dog Democrats." They have their own coalition and even a Web site.
"The Blue Dogs are dedicated to a core set of beliefs that transcend partisan politics, including a deep commitment to the financial stability and national security of the United States," the Web site says. Blue Dogs are fiscally conservative and centrist on most issues.
The name surfaced when Republicans gained control of the House in 1994. Right-of-center Democrats claimed they were being "choked blue" by party liberals. Thus, the Blue Dogs formed their own kennel and started barking.
Kratovil promised to join the centrist conservative group after the Blue Dog Coalition endorsed him in August.
"It's wrong to be telling people what they want to hear. We have to be responsible," Kratovil said at the time. "We can't continue to tell people we can have it both ways" when it comes to spending and taxes. He pledged to "get our fiscal house back in order" and work toward Blue Dog goals, such as a public review of budget earmarks and a balanced budget amendment.
Putting those words into action is now the new congressman's assignment, and it won't be easy. How do you justify gigantic federal bailouts and loans to corporate America that will send this year's deficit somewhere north of $1 trillion? (That's right, one trillion dollars, spelled with 12 — yes 12 — zeros.)
There are enough Blue Dogs in Congress that Obama must pay attention. If they side with Republicans on fiscal matters, the new president won't have the votes to pass his legislation. Blue Dogs — the centrist conservatives — hold the key.
Similarly in the Senate, Blue Dogs are growing in number. Newcomers include Virginia's Mark Warner and North Carolina's Kay Hagan. They'll join other centrist, swing Democrats such as Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Max Baucus of Montana, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Kent Conrad of North Dakota as well as independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.
Democrats have more than enough votes in the House and Senate to support their president as long as Obama doesn't lead them so far left his congressional majority splinters. That would lead to the sort of political gridlock Obama promised to end.
Our new president isn't much of a bowler, as we discovered during his ungainly "photo op" misadventure at a 10-pin lane in the campaign. Yet he could learn a great deal about governing by studying bowling strategy: If you aim the ball so it strikes the triangle of pins slightly to the left or right of dead-center, you'll knock down all or most of them.
That's how you roll a perfect game. And that's how Obama can best push his bills through Congress — with policies that steer toward the center rather than veering sharply to the left, where the gutter lies.
Frank Kratovil's future also lies in that political sweat spot near the center. His predecessor, Republican Wayne Gilchrest, survived for 18 years in Congress because his independent, right-of-center, left-of-center ways helped him roll strikes at election time.
But Gilchrest's luck, and bowling skills, ran out this year, when Republicans accused him of tossing too many far-left gutter balls and voting too often with the other party. He had lost his centrist image.
Both Obama and Kratovil need to heed that lesson. Finding common ground on which moderates of both parties agree should be the objective. Otherwise, all of us could wind up in the political gutter.
Barry Rascovar is a state political columnist and a communications consultant. His address is brascovar@ hotmail.com