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Maryland's initially anticipated job gains of 45,000 to 60,000 in the next few years due to the Pentagon's Base Realignment and Closure program are "understated, perhaps significantly understated," a state official said this week.

The earlier estimates were "very conservative," and the actual indirect and direct BRAC-related job count could exceed 60,000 in the coming years, said retired Marine Corps Gen. J. Michael Hayes, director of the Office of Military and Federal Affairs in the Maryland Department of Business and Economic Development. He made the remarks while speaking to mostly retail executives, developers and economic development officials Tuesday during a panel discussion coordinated by the International Council of Shopping Centers at a Smithsonian Institution office in Landover.

The jobs will be mostly high-paying positions in the information technology, scientific and research fields, with salaries averaging around $100,000, Hayes said.

"They will have significant spending power," he said of the workers.

Besides good news for developers and retailers, that's also welcome news for the brightest university graduates who want to stay in the area and employers who want to retain them, said Robert Leib, special assistant for BRAC with Anne Arundel County. "Our universities' smartest students will be able to compete for the very best jobs right here in Maryland," he said.

Even so, the agencies and other employers will likely have to recruit nationally, Hayes said.

"We cannot fill all these positions locally," he said.

As far as direct employment, Fort Meade in central Maryland is expected to see the greatest impact, with at least 11,800 new government jobs and embedded contractors, according to the state's latest projections. Aberdeen Proving Ground in Harford County should see about 8,800 positions; Andrews Air Force Base in Prince George's County, 3,000; the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, 2,400; and Fort Detrick in Frederick, 1,400. Those figures do not include indirect non-embedded contractors and expected employees at service and other businesses.

Construction worth hundreds of millions of dollars is under way in and around Aberdeen, with many military contractors planning to relocate there. This week, executives with New York military contractor L-3 Communications said they plan to move 400 employees with its command and control systems division in New Jersey to a 75,000-square-foot building at Aberdeen that is part of a proposed 2 million square-foot business park developed by St. John Properties of Baltimore.

L-3 is the latest contractor to sign leases there, with others being Raytheon and CACI International. Corporate Office Properties Trust of Columbia is also developing property at Aberdeen and has leased space to companies including technology contractor Mitre Corp.

At the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, a $641 million project to combine the complex with the Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C., is being built by a joint venture of Clark Construction Group of Bethesda and Balfour Beatty Construction of Dallas. The project, expected to be completed in the fall of 2011, includes some 725,000 square feet of new medical office, emergency room and patient care space and about 450,000 square feet of renovations.

Retail opportunity

The best opportunity for new retail development is in northeast Maryland around Aberdeen Proving Ground, Hayes said. That area is expected to see an influx of workers and families from New Jersey.

Besides Aberdeen, retail outlets should also sprout around other BRAC hubs in Maryland, officials said. Fort Meade expects about 22,000 new employees in and around it by 2013, said Robert Leib, special assistant for BRAC with Anne Arundel County.

David Crocetti, a partner with Macro Holdings of Baltimore, which franchises Sonic restaurants, said the Fort Meade area is prime for new development. "It's a great opportunity," he said.

Barbara L. Simmons, group manager at M&T Bank Corp. in Baltimore, said she has applications for six to eight BRAC-related development projects on her desk seeking financing. Who ultimately gets the loans will depend on considerations such as staying power, experience and resources to survive the often challenging early stages of projects, she said.

"Most of these projects sound good," Simmons said. "But we can't finance everybody."

The competition for financing is magnified by the credit crunch, said Brian McDaniel, vice president of real estate advisory services at Washington commercial real estate consulting company Capitol CREAG.

"I don't see a lot of retail projects happening right away," he said. "But the demand will be there for a long time."

Improving roads and other infrastructure has also become a big priority as the state readies for thousands of new residents and commuters. The state transportation department has millions of dollars worth of improvement projects in the works around the bases.

Officials also want to encourage more carpools, buses and public transit options, Leib said.