Naysayers have had a field day with Maryland's fitful progress toward slot machines. Every time state officials take a step forward, their plans encounter new obstacles.
Yet it now appears things may turn out better than anticipated in the short term even with the biggest and most important sites in limbo.
Two slots facilities have been licensed. Bill Rickman is building a slots parlor beneath the grandstand at his Ocean Downs racetrack near Ocean City. He expects to open by Memorial Day.
Penn National Gaming recently bought 36 acres of land near I-95 on the Cecil County side of the Susquehanna River for an $88.5 million facility. A late 2010 debut is planned.
Together, the locations will have 2,300 machines with the potential to grow to 5,000.
Here's the surprise: Just those two gambling parlors could produce more revenue in the next fiscal year than originally predicted when slots were approved by the legislature in 2007.
That is extra money Gov. Martin O'Malley desperately needs.
Two years ago, legislative analysts projected Maryland facilities would take in $156 million from slots in fiscal 2011, which starts next July 1. This number now looks too conservative.
Based on recent consultant calculations, there's a chance the Cecil County and the Worcester County locations could pull in a cool $200 million in fiscal 2011. With the novelty of glitzy gaming facilities sure to draw huge crowds of slots-deprived Marylanders in the initial months, the sites might reap even more.
For fiscal 2012, the combined revenue could be in the $300 million to $600 million range, depending on the number of machines in operation and the level of regional enthusiasm.
The Ocean Downs venue could provide a much-needed boost for slumping Ocean City merchants. The lure of video gambling should add resort visitors in season and out of season men and women who like to play slots for fun and then shop, dine and sleep in town.
The Cecil County site offers enormous potential because it sits on a prime location at a busy I-95 exit that borders the Baltimore metropolis. Initial plans call for 75,000 square feet devoted to gambling machines, a 150-seat food buffet, a coffee shop, parking for at least 1,600 cars and more leisure-time additions later.
So much for the good news on the gambling front.
All the other issues are murky at best and will impact directly on Maryland's hopes for a billion-dollar slots bonanza in a few years.
For starters, the future of Baltimore city's slots facility, "Celebration Casino," is cloaked in mystery.
We don't even know all the names of the prospective owners. They haven't undergone background checks, either. The city's aggressive effort to dictate the site, which was changed to a more favorable nearby lot for the lone bidder, is only part of Baltimore's hurry-up approach that raises questions and concerns.
For instance, is it a coincidence that the individual who represented the mayor in Annapolis to get Baltimore's slots site restricted to a narrow swath of land south of downtown is now a part-owner of the development?
Why has the city rushed to clear the land for slots construction before the ownership group is approved?
Does this group have financing for a project that could exceed $200 million? The primary owner, Michael Moldenhauer, has an extensive record of accomplishments in the Toronto area, but he has no gambling expertise.
There's also the possibility of a lawsuit stemming from the city's over-the-top efforts to accommodate its lone slots applicant, especially the recent site switch that was not offered to earlier prospective bidders.
It could be many months before all questions are resolved. Meanwhile, Baltimore's slots are on hold.
This is also true for the best central Maryland site, Arundel Mills. A cowardly Anne Arundel County Council is holding hostage the lone applicant for that slots location.
Well-known developer David Cordish has been approved by a state commission to run a 4,750-machine slots facility at the giant Arundel Mills shopping mall, which already draws 14 million visitors a year. The revenue potential of the site is immense.
But local zoning approval is needed and the spineless council refuses to say "yes" or "no." Unfortunately, County Executive John Leopold has not exerted much effort to force a decision from the reluctant council.
Now the state selection panel has set a mid-December deadline for the Baltimore and Anne Arundel applications.
But even if public pressure forces a "yes" vote on local zoning, the Cordish bid could face a court challenge from local opponents and Laurel Race Course. That would delay everything.
Both the Baltimore and Anne Arundel applications remain problematic. Maryland can't count on either to deliver revenue in fiscal 2011, if ever.
Then there's the matter of a slots parlor legislators carved out for the Rocky Gap Lodge in rural Allegany County. The selection panel must re-advertise this location (the lone bidder was disqualified) or ask the 2010 legislature to enhance the operator's profit prospects. Otherwise, no tax revenue will flow from slots at Rocky Gap and the state's large investment in the lodge will be further imperiled.
None of these problems is shocking or insurmountable. Legalized gambling attracts conflict and controversy. But Maryland badly needs slots tax revenue and thousands of well-paying slots jobs to counter the damaging impact of the Great Recession.
Barry Rascovar is a State House columnist and communications specialist. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.