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What do Tuesday's election results tell us about the voters' mood, and are the results applicable to Maryland?

Republicans won big in Virginia and New Jersey, two very dissimilar states with surprisingly similar voting patterns on Tuesday. When President Barack Obama recently campaigned for Democrats in both states, he urged voters to bring their friends and families to the polls.

"Everyone has a cousin Pookie sitting home on the couch," he joked. "Well, get cousin Pookie to the polls on Tuesday." But cousin Pookie didn't show up.

The impressive GOP victories were largely the result of voter turnout patterns quite different than the phenomenon that swept Obama into the White House a year ago. Back then, racial minorities and young people under 30 voted in unprecedented numbers. And white senior citizens turned out less than usual.

On Tuesday, we saw the reverse: energized seniors, whites, Republicans and Independents flocked to the polls while cousin Pookie and the Obama coalition stayed home. In Virginia, voter turnout was less than 40 percent, the lowest in 40 years, which amplified the pro-Republican presence. New Jersey also saw low voter participation while the heaviest voter turnout came in Maine, where a law legalizing gay marriage was on referendum.

The law's supporters mistook the big turnout as a good omen. "It means we succeeded in reaching younger people and others who don't always vote," said a spokesman for Maine Equality. But the surge was led by the same voters who turned up in Virginia and New Jersey and the gay marriage measure went down to defeat.

The GOP victories in Virginia and New Jersey were impressive. Bob McDonnell, the Virginia winner, is only the third Virginia governor to garner more than 1 million votes and he swept his entire ticket into office. To put McDonnell's landslide into perspective, Virginia's last two governors, Democrats Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, won by five points and seven points respectively. On Tuesday, McDonnell won by 18 points.

In New Jersey, Chris Christie was outspent nearly four to one by multi-millionaire incumbent Jon Corzine, but won handily in a state that hasn't elected a statewide Republican since 1997. According to exit polls, most voters (89 percent in New Jersey, 85 percent in Virginia) were worried about the economy and they voted Republican by wide margins. Last year Obama won among Independent voters, but on Tuesday Independents voted for McDonnell (66 percent to 33 percent) and Chrsitie (60 percent to 30 percent), a huge shift that should alarm Democrats.

But, so far, the Democrats and the media are dismissing Tuesday's returns. "Ignore it," wrote Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus. Just like they ignored the town hall meetings, the "tea party" protests, 10 percent unemployment and the trillion dollar deficit. Tuesday's majorities are just a bunch of un-American racists.

The Washington Post injected itself into the Virginia governor's race by manipulating its news reporting to sink McDonnell. In late August, back-to-back front page stories dredged up McDonnell's 20-year-old grad school thesis critical of homosexuals, working mothers and abortion.

Then, in its daily news stories, The Washington Post catapulted the thesis into the campaign's top issue (this is the same newspaper that criticizes conservatives for politicizing "wedge issues").

It worked, and by late September McDonnell was dropping in the polls. But then the voters moved on to the real issues — jobs, the economy — and by Election Day, the Post was criticizing Creigh Deeds, the Democrat, for his "efforts to paint McDonnell as a radical conservative by publicizing the Republican's 20-year-old graduate school thesis ... voters find Deeds too negative." As the Deeds campaign sank, the media rats abandoned ship.

So what does all this mean for Maryland's 2010 elections? Well, Virginia may be close geographically but not demographically or politically. New Jersey is a better Maryland bellwether because, like Maryland, it's overwhelmingly Democratic, largely urban/suburban, heavily taxed, has a history of corruption and has a well-funded incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election.

That's why Maryland's former governor, Bob Ehrlich, was closely watching the New Jersey returns. Will Chris Christie's stunning victory inspire Ehrlich to take on Gov. Martin O'Malley next year?

A Gonzales Poll in September showed Ehrlich trailing O'Malley 38 percent to 49 percent. But now a Clarus Research Group Poll taken just before Tuesday's elections shows the gap narrowing, 40 percent to 47 percent. Both polls show Obama's Maryland approval steady at 60 percent and O'Malley's steady at 48 percent.

But a funny thing happened when the Clarus Poll asked Maryland voters if they are content to re-elect O'Malley or would like to see someone new. Only 39 percent said re-elect; 48 percent said they'd like to see someone new. And O'Malley's support among Independents has dropped to 34 percent.

Maryland voters give O'Malley good marks for ethics (54 percent) and leadership (47 percent), but he only scores in the low 30s for taxes, jobs, the state budget and utility rates.

Sure, all politics is local, but, like it or not, non-presidential year elections are referendums on national politics. Bob Ehrlich won for governor in 2002 because, on the heels of Sept. 11, the nation rallied around President Bush. Four years later, Ehrlich lost in a massive voter backlash against Bush, the Iraq War and Congress.

Looking at last Tuesday's tea leaves, Ehrlich, O'Malley and the others must soon place their bets on 2010.

Blair Lee is CEO of the Lee Development Group in Silver Spring and a regular commentator for WBAL radio. His column appears Fridays in The Gazette. His e-mail address is blair@leedg.com.