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The national Gross Domestic Product increased 3.5 percent at an annual rate to $14.3 trillion in the third quarter, the first rise in five quarters. The Dow is up, too. But then again, so are home foreclosures and unemployment. Retail sales nationally are down, as are new home sales and consumer confidence — but CEO confidence and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index are up.

Still, it all adds up to the end of the recession that began in December 2007, according to conventional definitions. Numerous leading economists agree, as some 80 percent of more than 40 economists recently surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics of Washington, D.C., said the recession was over. However, most economists also agreed that the recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.

But is the recession really over? And if so, what does that mean to Maryland companies and employers? The Business Gazette talked to members of the business community to get their take on today's economy and its prospects for the state.

Kathleen Snyder, CEO of the Maryland Chamber of Commerce:

"I do believe Maryland will come out of the recession faster than nearly every state in the union. We're seeing movement in the federal contracting world, with increases in some economic stimulus money, which will affect 2010. ... We're also watching commercial real estate, since we've seen no sign that it's bottoming out yet. ... There's mortgages that could be a problem in the next 12 to 18 months. We're unsure how large the problem is yet."

Christian S. Johansson, secretary of the Maryland Department of Business and Economic Development:

"The stock market is up and housing sales are up in Maryland over the last four months. Maryland has by far outperformed the rest of the United States. ... We were better prepared fiscally; we have a well-educated work force, diverse industries; and [are] a very stable state overall."

Timothy J. Adams, CEO of military technology company SA-TECH of Largo and chairman of the Greater Prince George's Business Roundtable:

"Credit still seems to be tough; we're still in in-depth negotiations with banks. The cost of money has not gone down, but we see some break in opportunity. The forecast of added business is picking up, but that has more to do with people having the perception that things are getting better. We still haven't seen that real flow of credit that a lot of us are anticipating and hoping for."

Alan Wilson, chairman and CEO of spice maker McCormick & Co. of Sparks:

"The economy may be improving, but there's no full recovery without jobs."

John Lane, president and CEO of Congressional Bank of Bethesda:

"I don't think the recession is over. ... People are getting more conservative. Psychologically, many could get accustomed to it. We may end up breeding a generation like our parents who came up during the Great Depression, because [younger people] will remember these years."

Ronald D. Paul, chairman and CEO of Eagle Bancorp of Bethesda:

"Personally, I'm not convinced the recession is over. But we are seeing a significant increase in demand on the loan side."

Peter Morici, professor of international business, University of Maryland, College Park:

"If you measure recessions by GDP, it is over. If you measure them by employment, it is not. ... Unless the Obama administration addresses the structural problems that caused the recession — management issues at the banks and huge trade deficits on oil and with China — the recovery will not generate strong enough growth to bring down the unemployment rate."

Stephen Fuller, professor of public policy, director of the Center for Regional Analysis, George Mason University, Fairfax, Va.:

"The recession was over in June, the last down month. ... Even the housing industry has shown gains. ... The labor force always lags by a year or two."

Anirban Basu, chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group of Baltimore and chief economist with Associated Builders and Contractors:

"The recession ended this summer ... [but] overall nonresidential construction volume continues to trend lower on a monthly basis, an indication that this segment of the nation's economy remains mired in its own recession. However ... it has become quite apparent that the stimulus package is now working its way through the economy and the construction sector. ... From a broader perspective, there are other reasons for emerging optimism. Data from other industries, including manufacturing, suggest that the nation's economic recovery is now gaining traction. Because nonresidential construction lags the overall economy by at least 12 to 18 months, the emerging recovery will not necessarily translate into improved construction spending in the very near term...."

Edward M. Rudnic, biotech executive and chairman, Tech Council of Maryland, Rockville:

"Job growth is slow-coming, but there is some turnaround. We've seen some biotech companies getting infusions and investments lately. These are good positive signs that we're going in the right direction."

David S. Block, CEO of Baltimore biotech Gliknik:

"The very last place you'd go to see rebound from the recession is the biotech industry. You wouldn't be able to tell. Here, we're not actively talking to any investors at the moment."

Scott Cornblatt, president of furniture and equipment liquidation company OLS Trading of North Potomac:

"We have a unique perspective on the economy based on the fact that when companies are starting, stopping, growing or moving, we are there to buy and sell for — or to — them. I do believe the economy is going in the right direction based on the needs that we are seeing in the market place. ... We sell a lot of furniture to startup businesses and companies that are growing and moving into new space. I have actually been talking a lot about how I have seen the economy growing because there is a tremendous need for furniture right now. ... The Montgomery County-Washington, D.C., area is a little ahead of other areas in the country [in seeing the demand increase]."

Gene M. Ransom III, CEO of the Maryland State Medical Society, Baltimore:

"There's not many rays of light in the physician community. Health care tends to be less cyclical with the economy and more affected by the government. Doctors are still looking at low reimbursement rates. Some folks are also seeing reductions in elective medical procedures, and we've seen no improvement on that end. We're in for a few more years of uncertainty and trouble, but hopefully things start getting better."

Georgette "Gigi" Godwin, CEO of the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce:

"Our businesses need to be in position for the long-range future. The question isn't whether we're out of the recession; the question is who is best prepared for the uptick. We're asking our members if they're ready for the change that is coming. If they're not taking advantage of the opportunities now, that's not good. ... If people know they can pay their bills, they're more likely to be part of the economy. The diversity of business in the area helps to shield us from the worst. ... We're concerned about the state and local policies and seeing that they have to do with supporting job creation."

Donald Fry, CEO of the Greater Baltimore Committee:

"It's not going to be a steep incline but a slow, gradual, incremental increase. Businesses are still being very cautious and moving deliberately. They're not planning any significant growth expectations. You also don't see the credit feed up to the level you like."

David Rodich, executive director of Service Employees International Union Local 500 in Gaithersburg, which represents about 16,000 workers in child care, education, community service and the public sector in Maryland and Washington:

"The state government is still projecting an immediate deficit. Montgomery County is projecting a significant deficit, also. For our members, it's a question of how we protect them and the services they provide to the public. ... No one here is breaking out champagne bottles. ... We're fortunate that President Obama has wisely invested stimulus dollars in our communities and Governor [Martin] O'Malley has been pragmatic in how the state has used its stimulus dollars. But there is still an awful lot of work to be done before our members feel good about the economy. While we might be in better shape than states with much higher unemployment rates like California, it's relative. We have seen a doubling of our unemployment rate in Maryland since the start of the recession. That is every bit as impactful to us as it is to a state like California."

Janice Frey-Angel, CEO of Melwood, an Upper Marlboro nonprofit that supports people with disabilities:

"Until the state of Maryland can increase revenues and stop cutting the human services support it provides, our people will continue to feel like they are in a recession. We can only cut jobs when our funding is cut, which continues the unemployment indicator of recession."

Fred Rosenthal, president of Jasper's Restaurant Group, with locations in Greenbelt, Crofton, Largo and Prince Frederick:

"I'm not an economist, but our industry has been impacted severely. We are seeing some improvement, but it takes a while to feel change. My gut feeling is that industries like retail, restaurants and service won't see improvement for at least six months."

James N. Plamondon, co-president of The Plamondon Cos. in Frederick and chairman of the Restaurant Association of Maryland:

"Our sales have been flat to slightly down, but we hope to continue to grow. Our September was better than 2008 ... the unemployment rate is still fairly high, so we need to get people back to work."

Thomas Saquella, president of the Maryland Retailers Association:

"We hope things get better and we are seeing more customers at stores. Our feeling is better than last year and we feel that the worst is over. But all indications are that seasonal hiring this holiday season will be less than last season. Retailers are very cautious."

Silvia Rodriguez, owner of Silvia International Realty in Rockville and president of the Maryland Hispanic Real Estate Industry Association:

"There are more buyers out there who were enticed by the $8,000 federal tax credit. These are very difficult economic times for all; the housing industry really moves the nation's economy and it is crucial to move forward to help people — it is a very important part of moving the economy forward. We need more programs for new and repeat buyers."

Stephen F. Meszaros, president, Maryland Association of Realtors:

"We had a very good August and September in units sold, but October slowed down. The tax credits helped a lot but appraisers and lenders were very conservative. The appraisers have taken a 180-degree flip to appraising at much less and lenders are taking so much time and being conservative that it is creating a logjam. If you have a qualified borrower who can buy the property, they should make the loan. They got billions from the taxpayers, but they are acting as if they have no money."

Steven A. Silverman, director of the Montgomery County Department of Economic Development:

"The recession is a technical term involving the GDP. It has nothing to do with the economy on the ground; if there is a one-tenth of 1 percent growth rate, that means there is no recession.

"We have seen an 85 percent drop in residential construction ... we are redoubling our efforts to rebuild our tax base with the White Flint master plan and streamlining our development review process. The only job growth in Montgomery County is in federal government, health care and education."