With just one day left to sway voters, the slots vote appears up in the air, two Maryland pollsters say.
"I think it's a lot closer than a lot of people are saying," said Patrick Gonzales, president of Gonzales Research and Marketing of Annapolis.
On Question 2, Maryland voters will be deciding an amendment to the state constitution to allow 15,000 slot machines at five locations around the state.
State revenue from the machines, which is expected to reach more than $600 million in five years, would support education, the horse racing industry and assorted state programs.
Gonzales' latest poll was in September, which showed 49 percent favored slots, compared with 43 percent against.
A Washington Post poll, released Oct. 21, showed slots support had grown to 62 percent. But that survey also showed 54 percent support in Montgomery County, a jurisdiction traditionally opposed to expanding gambling.
"That's contrary to everything I've observed," Gonzales said.
G. Keith Haller, president of Potomac Inc., said the Montgomery County figure on the Post poll "did raise an eyebrow."
"We've always believed the Maryland public was quite malleable on slots," Haller said. "There was never really a solid majority for support for slots, even when you added all the inducements. I wouldn't be surprised if it wound up nip and tuck."
Politically, Gonzales said the slots vote is hard to call because neither side dominates the Democratic Party, which holds a 2-1 registration advantage across Maryland.
But the balloting for president is expected to draw a large turnout of blacks, a voting bloc that has not been generally supportive of expanded gambling, he said.
On the other hand, the presidential race is expected to draw a lot of young and first-time voters, who might be slightly more inclined to support gambling, Haller said.
The economy also is likely to affect balloting, although neither pollster would say exactly how. October was a bad month for the stock market, but last week finished on a high note on Wall Street.
"I do think that [the economy] has been part of the wind at our face," said Scott Arceneaux, an adviser to Marylanders United to Stop Slots.
The coalition supporting slots has used the economy to paint the slot machine revenue as a painless source of funding for government programs.
"We've been trying to say there's no such thing as easy money," Arceaneaux said. "There's no such thing as a free lunch."
Fred Puddester, spokesman for For Maryland, For Our Future, did not return a call seeking comment.