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Are state Dems missing the boat?

National polls show Democrats in ascendance, but GOP candidates seem to be gaining ground here

Friday, Nov. 3, 2006

Maryland’s 2-to-1 advantage in Democratic voter registrations combined with deepening disapproval of President Bush, the Iraq war and various Republican scandals in Congress was considered a perfect storm for a party accustomed to decades of dominance in statewide elections. After all, U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) trounced Bush by double digits in Maryland in 2004 and Democrats control nearly all levers of political power except the governor’s office.

Instead, a poll released this week by The (Baltimore) Sun suggests that the gubernatorial race is a dead heat, with O’Malley (D) losing a once-comfortable lead under a barrage of negative ads from incumbent Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R).

Click here to enlarge this photo Brenda Ahearn⁄The Gazette U.S. Senate candidate Benjamin L. Cardin (center) stumps with (left to right) Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson and State’s Attorney Glenn F. Ivey in Palmer Park on Thursday. Cardin and gubernatorial candidate Martin O’Malley have watched comfortable leadsdwindle as Republicans have turned up the heat late in the election season. Click here to enlarge this photo Tom Fedor⁄The Gazette Gubernatorial candidate Martin O’Malley campaigns alongside U.S. Senate candidate Benjamin L. Cardin and Sixth Congressional District candidate Andrew J. Duck. O’Malley is in a virtual dead heat with Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich in the polls.

And on Thursday, the poll, conducted by Potomac Inc. of Bethesda, found that Cardin’s once formidable lead over Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele (R) has been sliced in half despite the Democratic Party’s constant efforts to tie Steele to the unpopular president and the national GOP.

‘‘If it wasn’t such a bad year for the Republicans, you have to wonder whether Steele would be ahead today,” said Jennifer Duffy, editor of the Cook Political Report in Washington that recently painted the Cardin-Steele race as a toss-up. ‘‘I think Democrats underestimated Steele, and they really believed that he wasn’t going to do anything.”

So in a year where Democrats are predicting that they could retake control of Congress, Democrats in blue Maryland are still fighting to energize their most loyal voting bloc — African Americans — and turning back the specter that Ehrlich and⁄or Steele could survive the national Democratic upswing.

‘‘If the Democrats lose this, we have no one to blame but ourselves,” said one senior Democratic leader.

Despite the findings of The Sun poll that showed Cardin with a 74 percent to 12 percent edge among African- American voters, the Democratic Party is pulling out the stops — and importing its national star power — to get out the vote. Cardin led Steele by more than 10 points in a poll by The Washington Post published Sunday.

Democratic superstar U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is making his second trip to Prince George’s County today to rally voters at Bowie State University. There is also talk that former president Bill Clinton will make a return to Maryland before Tuesday.

‘‘You always sprint to the finish line,” said Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn F. Ivey (D), who said that the Democratic luminaries coming to town is traditional election-year protocol. ‘‘If you take something for granted, that’s when you get in trouble.”

On Thursday morning, U.S. Rep. Albert R. Wynn (D-Dist. 4) of Mitchellville and Prince George’s County Executive Jack B. Johnson (D) — both of whom have been in political hibernation since both eked out narrow victories in their primaries — finally threw their support behind Cardin. Wynn and Johnson were joined by a number of black leaders from Prince George’s at Victory House in Hyattsville to say that the Democratic Party’s values trump the importance of electing Steele, an African American and a Prince George’s native.

‘‘We’re here to remind Democrats about the big issues,” Johnson said. ‘‘This is between two candidates who stand differently on key issues, and it should not be decided on racial issues. ... I want an African American in office, but I want one who is qualified.”

‘‘I have strong support among the voters,” Cardin said. ‘‘People understand the stark differences between me and my opponent. Voters in Prince George’s County are voting on issues. They want someone who will represent them and make changes and stand up to the president on issues such as Iraq.”

Retiring Sen. Gloria G. Lawlah (D-Dist. 26) of Hillcrest Heights said the Cardin-Steele race presents a difficult choice for black Democrats. She said it’s a choice between ‘‘legacy and loyalty.”

Lawlah agreed that Maryland’s statewide races should not be as close as they are, given the national sentiment against the GOP. But, she said, there is discontent among some African Americans.

‘‘It’s disappointing,” said Lawlah, a candidate for Prince George’s County school board, who endorsed Cardin on Thursday. ‘‘Maryland is supposed to be a solid Democratic state. To have this situation of being highly competitive is disappointing ... but it has energized us. We want a clean sweep.”

This week, the racial tensions that plagued the Democrats in 2002 and helped to sink the gubernatorial campaign of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, have boiled over once again. On Monday, an influential group of Prince George’s County African-American Democrats crossed party lines and endorsed Steele.

Former Prince George’s county executive Wayne K. Curry, a charismatic Democrat who remains a powerhouse in county political and business circles, led the group. Five black Democratic council members and Major F. Riddick Jr., former chief of staff to Gov. Parris N. Glendening (D), joined Curry in denouncing the Democratic Party for its all-white top ticket this year.

Ivey called the Steele endorsements ‘‘a blip,” but for Democrats, the message it sent was both troublesome and familiar. The theme hammered home by the Steele supporters was that the Democratic Party has taken African-American voters for granted far too long.

‘‘We feel ignored and marginalized by the Democratic Party,” County Councilman David Harrington (D) said Monday. ‘‘We decided that we needed to stand up and make a statement that we weren’t going to wait any longer.”

This year, as in 2002, this race-based resentment has focused around a particular set of events. In 2002, it was Townsend, in her zest to burnish her moderate credentials, bypassing Isiah Leggett, now the odds-on favorite to be Montgomery County executive, and choosing a white former Republican as her running mate. This year, it is the zeal with which party leaders coalesced around Cardin in his primary against former Baltimore congressman Kweisi Mfume that has angered many African Americans.

Cardin outspent Mfume and won the nomination by less than 20,000 votes. Demonstrating Mfume’s political potency, Cardin officials handed out mailers with Mfume endorsing Cardin at Thursday’s news conference.

Rushern L. Baker III, a former Prince George’s County delegate and a Cardin supporter, said Curry’s complaint against the Democratic Party is legitimate.

‘‘If we are to move the Democratic Party forward and say that we’re not about the good ol’ boy network any more, the party needs to recognize where the grumbling is coming from,” said Baker, who narrowly lost to Johnson in this year’s Democratic primary. ‘‘The party needs to open up the top of the ticket.”

Meanwhile, Steele was endorsed Thursday by about 20 pastors of black churches from across the state in Annapolis. Standing in front of the statue of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall on Lawyer’s Mall, Steele unveiled a ‘‘Marshall Plan” of social programs.

‘‘I don’t know anyone who wants to be poor. I don’t know anyone who wants to be illiterate. I don’t know anyone who wants to be cast aside in society,” he said.

His plan includes promoting anti-poverty legislation, fully funding No Child Left Behind education law and increasing foreign aid to African and Caribbean countries.

He also would fight for small, women-owned and minority-owned businesses. The plan includes planks to combat HIV⁄AIDS and drug addiction, to help nonprofit and faith-based organizations work with the government and to increase health insurance enrollment for small-business employees.

Steele said he would introduce legislation to reverse disparities in criminal sentencing procedures.

A reporter suggested the plan looked more like one from a Democrat instead of a Republican.

‘‘I don’t know what Republicans are going to do,” Steele said. ‘‘I just know what Michael Steele is going to do.”

Staff writers Douglas Tallman and Jason Flanagan contributed to this report.