Gubernatorial hopefuls take show on the road

Friday, Oct. 28, 2005

by Alan Brody

Staff Writer

Click here to enlarge this photo

Gary Smith⁄The Gazette

Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan explains his education-heavy platform to teachers and local Democrats at J.C. Parks Elementary School, which he visited Monday afternoon as part of a statewide tour announcing his candidacy for governor.

Click here to enlarge this photo

Bryan Haynes⁄The Gazette

Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (right) spent part of Friday in Bowie with City Councilman D. Michael Lyles (left) and Mayor G. Frederick Robinson at Bowie City Hall. He followed that up Tuesday by talking to the Prince George’s County Central Committee, where he was joined by rival Duncan.

For more, see Duncan, O’Malley play nice at party breakfast.
A week after the Democratic gubernatorial nomination officially became a contested race, Southern Maryland is emerging as a swing region that could determine the outcome of the primary.

Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan has been a visible presence in Charles, Calvert and St. Mary’s counties during the past year, signifying how important the region could be to him if he can offset Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley’s advantage in the Charm City suburbs.

‘‘Southern Maryland is quite a prize now,” said Sen. Roy P. Dyson (D-Dist. 29) of Great Mills. ‘‘You can’t walk away from the fastest-growing region in the state and write it off.”

Both candidates made visits to Southern Maryland following their respective campaign announcements, but O’Malley so far has appeared only in Calvert County, while Duncan spent all day Monday in the region.

‘‘I think the more that he shows his face down here and shows us in St. Mary’s that he is concerned about us, the more it will pay dividends,” said St. Mary’s County Sheriff David D. Zylak (D) after listening to Duncan at Fitzie’s restaurant in Compton.

Duncan is likely to benefit from the endorsements in Charles County of Sen. Thomas ‘‘Mac” Middleton (D-Dist. 28) of Waldorf and Del. Murray D. Levy (D-Dist. 28) of La Plata.

‘‘I think that Doug has made some early leads into Southern Maryland. He’s been working this area for over a year now, making the appropriate contacts that are going to be the workers in a campaign,” Middleton said.

O’Malley plans to make a strong push in Southern Maryland, said campaign manager Jonathan A. Epstein.

‘‘Martin O’Malley thinks Southern Maryland plays an absolutely critical role, and that’s why we’re fighting so hard for every vote down there,” he said, noting that Democrats have ‘‘not even seen the full thrust of the campaign that they’re going to see next year.”

A statewide poll released this week shows O’Malley running much stronger than Duncan in a showdown with Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in a region encompassing Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore.

The survey by Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies shows Ehrlich (R) leading O’Malley 49 percent to 44 percent and has him running well ahead of Duncan 58 percent to 33 percent. The poll has a 3.5 percent margin of error.

The same poll shows O’Malley and Duncan beating Ehrlich statewide, with O’Malley holding a slightly greater lead.

On his tour Monday, Duncan refused to declare or cede victory to anyone.

‘‘We can’t take any county for granted,” he said. ‘‘We can’t take any vote for granted.”

It is too early to declare any county unwinnable by any candidate, Middleton said: ‘‘I think that Southern Maryland is going to be key to Doug Duncan’s success ... but at the same token, he has the opportunity to pick up votes and gain some ground in Baltimore city and Baltimore County” with the endorsements of former city mayors William Donald Schaefer (D) and Kurt L. Schmoke (D).

But some conservative Southern Maryland voters may be leery of supporting a candidate from the state’s largest jurisdiction, warned Del. John F. Wood Jr. (D-Dist. 29) of Mechanicsville.

‘‘It’s not easy for someone out of Montgomery County to run in a statewide election, because particularly in the rural areas, they look at someone from Montgomery County as being on the liberal side,” he said.

The region is up for grabs, said Zach Messitte, an assistant professor of political science at St. Mary’s College.

‘‘This is neutral ground,” he said. ‘‘The rest of the state, maybe with the exception of Western Maryland, is not neutral ground.”

Messitte said Duncan has made a concerted effort to build support in the region.

‘‘Duncan really has gone out of his way to cultivate some of the old-timers down here,” he said. ‘‘His message ... is one that resonates with Democratic Party folks who remember the days of the 1950s and 1960s where state government invested in things like St. Mary’s College, [the Gov. Thomas Johnson Bridge], getting rid of slots. I’m not sure O’Malley has done the same kind of legwork in terms of cultivating those kinds of political [relationships] in the region.”

Baltimore’s underperforming school system could be O’Malley’s biggest stumbling block, said Bill Fisher, president of the Education Association of Charles County, who sported a Duncan for Governor lapel pin.

‘‘Some of the things that O’Malley did not do in Baltimore are going to be his undoing,” he said.