Session’s scenarios

No one in the legislature was fooled. Democrats know their progressive governor won’t shred social programs or cut safety nets for the poor and elderly. Doomsday will never come.

The lack of a good ‘‘trick or treat” device has hindered O’Malley in his efforts to line up enough votes for his tax and slots package.

The governor’s list of $866 million in local aid cuts and $799 million in cuts to state agencies is a ‘‘worst case” scenario that will never occur.

By the time next week’s special session ends — possibly by Turkey Day and definitely by Christmas — most of O’Malley’s package will be approved, however reluctantly. Legislators may even surprise us and whiz through their deliberations.

That’s the ‘‘best case” scenario, but everything would have to fall into place, including concessions by House Speaker Mike Busch and liberal Democrats to boost support for slots legislation.

Polls this week give Busch & Co. a reason to do just that. Slots are favored by nearly 7 out of every 10 Marylanders in a Washington Post poll and by nearly 6 out of 10 in a Gonzales Research poll — the highest level ever achieved in each survey.

Here’s a shocking result for Montgomery County legislators: In the Post poll, two-thirds of county residents say they favor slots. A majority in Prince George’s County feel that way, too.

In the Gonzales poll, slot machines are favored by a majority of both Democrats and Republicans, men and women, whites and African-Americans. Those polled like the idea of slots as a revenue-raiser — a way to ward off more tax increases a few years from now.

What’s most surprising about the Post poll is that three-quarters of those questioned are not slots players. Yet the vast majority of them say they approve of slots in Maryland.

Even with this good news, O’Malley is having trouble getting 71 votes in the House for slots. He also may encounter heavy resistance to a sales tax increase: Both polls show overwhelming opposition to a penny increase.

That’s not surprising. Raising the sales tax has a direct impact on everyone: You and I will pay a little more for our purchases. We will notice it many times a day. It is a dangerous tax for politicians.

Yet the depth of Maryland’s deficit (a minimum of $2.2 billion) requires a mountain of new revenue and a penny increase in the sales tax brings in $750 million. That’s why this higher levy is pivotal in O’Malley’s plan to balance the state budget next year.

Passage of the slots bill then becomes the fulcrum for financing O’Malley’s education and health programs in later years. It’s the slots revenue, starting in 2009, that will pay for new higher education spending, give counties more money under the Thornton school-aid law and provide health care coverage for 100,000 more Marylanders.

Without slots revenue, O’Malley could be treading water for the rest of his term, unable to implement his progressive agenda. He could be vulnerable in 2010.

A potential foe already is actively riling the governor and generating controversy in Annapolis — Comptroller Peter Franchot.

In recent days he has denounced Senate President Mike Miller as a traitor to the Democratic Party, opposed the entire O’Malley package and told lawmakers they shouldn’t hold a special session.

He sent a letter to the presiding officers asking them not to increase taxes at this time because of the ‘‘enormous ramifications” their actions will have on every Marylander and the state economy. He called it ‘‘a perfect storm of unintended consequences.”

If the state goes into a nose dive next year, for any reason, Franchot will blame the governor.

He will denounce legislators for hastily approving a package of ill-conceived tax bills at a special session.

He will tell voters that O’Malley raised their sales tax.

He will tell business leaders that O’Malley raised the corporate income tax and their personal income tax payments.

He will tell car drivers that O’Malley boosted the state tax on gasoline at the pump and made buying a new car more expensive.

Meanwhile, Franchot will continue his anti-slots crusade and denounce O’Malley for bringing those evil machines to Maryland.

Franchot is positioning himself as the fiscally prudent, anti-tax and anti-slots alternative.

Should the governor’s approval ratings plunge from their current mediocre levels (53 percent in the Post poll and 46 percent in the Gonzales poll), Franchot might mount a challenge in 2010 as the true progressive Democrat. Stranger things have happened.

How’s that for a ‘‘trick or treat”?

Barry Rascovar is a communications consultant and longtime State House columnist. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.