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"I will have plenty of time ... to decide."

That's the way Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith summed up the unexpected news he's selling his longtime house in Reisterstown and taking up residence in a different legislative district — fueling speculation he's preparing a step-down campaign for the state senate.

A state senate run is a back-up option. He'd rather be a candidate for higher elective office, but there aren't any openings at the moment.

The term-limited Democratic county executive wanted to declare for state comptroller but concluded incumbent Peter Franchot held too many advantages.

Smith wouldn't mind becoming Gov. Martin O'Malley's running mate as lieutenant governor — even though the job lacks power or responsibility.

But that won't happen unless the current officeholder, Anthony Brown, seeks a more substantive post — either in the Obama administration at the Pentagon or as Prince George's county executive.

For O'Malley, adding Smith holds considerable promise. First, Smith's campaign account already tops $1 million. Second, Smith is popular in Baltimore County, a pivotal subdivision in statewide elections. Third, this would hurt the comeback chances of former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who appeals to many of the same moderates as does Smith in Baltimore County.

But adding Smith to the O'Malley team could create divisions among Democrats.

That happened in 2002 when Democratic gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Kennedy Townsend ignored the advice of black politicians and Washington-area leaders urging her to balance her ticket geographically and racially by selecting state party chairman Isiah Leggett. This snub prompted Ehrlich to choose a black Prince George's County politician as his running mate, Michael Steele. Townsend's misstep — and Ehrlich's smart counter-move — had an impact in that election.

So if Brown decides he's had enough of his dead-end job as O'Malley's chief cheerleader, the governor could come under the same pressure as did Townsend. His best choices might be Prince George's State's Attorney Glenn Ivey or Montgomery County Executive Leggett, rather than Smith.

That's why Smith sought a back-up plan. And he couldn't do that without calling a moving van.

Some people are advising Smith to consider a race for Congress against nine-term Republican Roscoe Bartlett, whose Sixth Congressional District cuts across the entire northern tier of Maryland's western shore, including rural and suburban parts of Baltimore County.

Bartlett is entrenched in his congressional seat, but he is 83 years old. Even if Smith runs and loses, he'd establish himself as a logical successor. That's what former Congresswoman Helen D. Bentley did: She ran three times against an entrenched, aging incumbent (Clarence Long) before she won.

It would be an uphill race, though. Bartlett swamped former Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty in 2008. His district was intentionally drawn to favor a Republican candidate.

Yet Smith is a fiscal conservative who was highly popular as a Baltimore County councilman representing a very conservative and Republican area that is part of Bartlett's district. He'd be following the same ideological path as Beverley Byron and her late husband, Goodloe Byron, who represented the Sixth Congressional District as conservative Democrats for 32 years before Bartlett was elected in 1992.

But Smith couldn't use his $1 million campaign treasury in a federal election. State and national Democrats, though, led by U.S. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, would make sure Smith had plenty of money to give Bartlett a stiff challenge.

Still, Smith isn't likely to take that route. It would be too much of a long-term, uphill fight. He wants a race that will keep his political career alive next year.

That's why Smith is moving into the Seventh Legislative District, where incumbent Republican state Sen. Andy Harris is again running for Congress and this time must vacate his seat.

Smith can outspend his rivals and he's got plenty of friends in that district from his earlier races. Yet these advantages for Smith may be an illusion.

Harris's senate district heavily favors Republicans. In 2006, Democrats fielded the president of the powerful state teachers' union against Harris. Patricia Foerster got an enormous amount of union money and volunteer help. Yet she managed to poll only 39 percent of the vote.

Even Maryland's most popular politician, Sen. Barbara Mikulski, lost in the Seventh Legislative District the last time she ran, although she won 65 percent of the statewide vote. That's how Republican it is in northern Baltimore County and portions of Harford County.

Howard County's Jim Robey made the step-down transition from county executive to state senator in a very heated election in 2006. Smith could find his senate race even more tightly contested. He'll likely face one of a number of popular Republicans — Del. J.B. Jennings, former Del. Al Redmer or former Del. Ken Holt.

Since Smith wants to remain active in politics, this senate race may be his only logical move in 2010 to keep his elective career afloat. But it won't be a slam dunk.

Barry Rascovar is a longtime State House columnist and a communications consultant in the Baltimore area. His e-mail address is brascovar@hotmail.com.