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Funded only for two of four phases, the Corridor Cities Transitway might not see construction begin until 2017 or later, five years later than more-discussed projections.

A 2012 start date is possible but would require that tens of millions of state dollars be pumped in to fund land acquisition and construction of the proposed light rail or rapid bus line that would connect the Shady Grove Metro station with Clarksburg, said Henry M. Kay, a deputy administrator for the Maryland Transit Administration.

Kay's sobering analysis came at a Sept. 24 forum in Gaithersburg attended by more than two dozen elected officials or their representatives and another dozen advocates for the 14-mile CCT.

The state has committed $45.4 million for planning and engineering through 2014.

"I expect a lot to happen between now and then, and it could help or hurt the project," Kay said in an interview. "All kinds of things can happen, so 2017 is as much speculation as 2012…. It just depends what money's available [then]."

Questions from state and Gaithersburg officials at the forum centered largely on the likelihood of securing federal money to pay for as much as half of the project — which, if light rail, would cost $777 million and if rapid bus, $450 million — while also convincing the Federal Transit Administration to help with the Purple Line from Bethesda to New Carrollton and the Red Line extension to Baltimore.

"I can tell you now, as wonderful as these projects are and as convincing as we are of the FTA and as supporting a governor as we would have now or then, that ain't gonna happen," Kay told legislators. "There's just no way that we can afford financially or afford politically to put that much money into transit projects. So something is going to have to give … and there will be a battle that you all will have to fight … with your publics about what's funded."

But with widespread support for the CCT and continuing controversies over the alignment and construction of the Red Line extension and the Purple Line, lawmakers hope that the CCT will emerge as the best choice — without bruising legislative tussles.

"Everybody I know supports the CCT… I think that will get us off the hook," said Sen. Jennie M. Forehand (D-Dist. 17) of Rockville.

"We need each other. We are far stronger with each other than without," said Del. Kirill Reznik (D-Dist. 39) of Germantown. "I don't think anyone is prepared to abandon one project for the other."

Still to be decided

Weighing input from local leaders, MTA will decide in April on the CCT's path and whether it will be light rail or rapid bus. MTA will submit an application for federal approval in July. 

Federal authorities look largely at the ratio between the project's cost and the number of commuting hours saved. The CCT will need at least a "medium" rating for that ratio, between $16.00 and $24.49.

Current projections have the rapid bus option coming out to about $18. The light rail option is well above the threshold, at more than $32.

That might be drastically improved by Johns Hopkins University's vision to create more than 10 million square feet of office and laboratory space and 10,000 housing units in and around the Shady Grove Life Sciences Center.

While the project would improve the cost-benefit ratio by boosting ridership, it would also make the ride several minutes longer, discouraging many riders in Germantown and Clarksburg, Kay said.

Light rail would carry between 24,000 and 30,000 riders daily and take 36 minutes from Shady Grove to Clarksburg. Rapid bus would carry 21,000 to 27,000 riders and take 38 minutes.

Kay guessed that rerouting the CCT through the Hopkins project would add six or seven minutes.