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Obama administration officials Sunday wouldn't rule out a tax increase for the middle class, a statement that could hurt first-term Rep. Frank Kratovil's re-election campaign, a college professor said Monday.

"I think he's this classic conservative Democrat, and these bread-and-butter issues affect the district," said Melissa Deckman, a political science professor at Washington College. "Tax increases help his opponent a lot."

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers, head of the President's National Economic Council, appeared before Sunday morning talk shows refusing to rule out tax increases for the middle class as a means to bring down the federal deficit.

Geithner told ABC's "This Week" that the country has "to bring these deficits down very dramatically." The federal deficit is estimated at more than $1 trillion.

When he was running for the White House, President Barack Obama promised taxes would fall or stay the same for 95 percent of Americans.

Obama's popularity helped propel Kratovil into office last year. Kratovil is the first Democrat to represent the 1st Congressional District in 18 years. He squeaked past state Sen. Andrew P. Harris by 2,800 votes.

Harris (R-Dist. 7) of Cockeysville already has announced he will give up his safe Maryland Senate seat for a rematch in 2010.

The race could hinge on the Republican Party's attempts to illustrate Kratovil's connections to the Obama administration.

"They're certainly going to try to do that, but after one term in office, Kratovil will have a record to show his constituents," said Matthrew Crenson, a political science professor at Johns Hopkins University.

Harris on Monday said Kratovil already had voted for a middle class tax increase with his support of the cap-and-trade bill, which will limit companies' emissions. Critics claim it will drive up the cost of energy.

"I don't know where the congressman stands on that particular quote, but he's already voted for a middle class tax increase," Harris said.

Kratovil spokesman Kevin Lawlor said the congressman supported the cap-and-trade legislation because it will reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, help the Chesapeake Bay and benefit farmers.

And as for a tax increase, Lawlor said it would have to go through Congress and Kratovil wouldn't support it.

"The congressman campaigned as someone who is going to protect the middle class, and that's something he's going to do for the rest of this term," Lawlor said.

Crenson believes the talk of a tax increase — which Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs ruled out Monday — could help Kratovil. The debate will increase Kratovil's visibility because of his membership in the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of 55 conservative Democrats in Congress. The Blue Dogs have distanced themselves from the party on health care reform.

"They may also draw back and desert him on tax increases," Crenson said.

Although Kratovil's votes largely support the Democrats, he has departed from the president on key issues. He first opposed the stimulus plan, voting for the final $787 billion package after $36 billion was removed. And he opposed Obama's budget.

Despite the conservative leanings of the Eastern Shore, Kratovil might benefit by being a Democrat. Democrats have a voter registration edge in the 1st District.

And, Crenson said, congressional Republicans are even more unpopular than Obama.

"They're going to have problems of their own in the next congressional election," he said. "I think their refusal to yield on just about anything — Sotomayor, health care, the environment — without providing any alternative, it's going to erode what popular support they once had."

Deckman said that if Kratovil votes against any increase, it will give him some "insulation" in his re-election. If he votes for the increase, but the economy improves, he still might be safe, she said.

And, if he votes for it and the economy worsens, the former state's attorney will have to go out and talk about security, and law and order, the issues that got him elected, she said.