Will federal tobacco talk snuff out state tax hike?

Plan to double cigarette tax intended to provide health care to uninsured residents

Such a substantial boost may change the strategy at the state level, said Del. James W. Hubbard (D-Dist. 23A) of Bowie. Proponents might scale back their proposal to 75 cents per pack to maintain support among lawmakers, he said.

And the expanded federal health care may fulfill some programs that the General Assembly wanted to enhance, Hubbard said. ‘‘We may be able to subtract from the $1 [proposal] and come up with another figure that would be sufficient for a total health care package.”

The federal plan could raise between $35 billion and $50 billion over five years, which would represent the largest expansion of SCHIP since it began a decade ago.

U.S. House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Dist. 5) of Mechanicsville met with Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygeine Secretary John M. Colmers and several state legislators on Thursday to discuss the implementation of SCHIP, which covers more than 100,000 low-income children in Maryland.

‘‘Maryland has an exceptional CHIP, but current resources are insufficient to match the mission of covering all qualified children who lack basic healthcare services,” Hoyer said in a statement. ‘‘It is critical that Congress work together with the states implementing this program to not only reauthorize and fund children’s healthcare, but also to explore ways to ensure all those who are eligible to enroll do so.”

Advocates in Maryland are closely monitoring the federal proposal and say that its passage could strengthen their cause at the state level.

‘‘Voters understand that increasing tobacco taxes is smart policy and they want their elected officials to do it,” said Vincent DeMarco, president of the Maryland Citizens’ Health Initiative, which is leading the charge for a state cigarette tax increase.

It costs more than $7 in health care expenses for each pack of cigarettes sold in Maryland, DeMarco said, citing data released in 2004 from federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

‘‘We’ve got a long way to go with tobacco taxes before we cover that, and the fact is that increases in tobacco taxes, even in states that have a higher tax than Maryland, have always had two results,” he said. ‘‘It reduces teen smoking and brings in money for health care expansion or other needs.”

The House of Delegates earlier this year easily passed a $1-per-pack increase for expanded health coverage, but the bill was scuttled in the Senate. Proponents have pledged to redouble their efforts next year.

‘‘There’s always a public health benefit attached to increasing the tobacco tax, and we save money on the back end over time from reduction in healthcare expenditures when we increase the tobacco tax because people remain healthier,” said Del. Heather R. Mizeur (D-Dist. 20) of Silver Spring, who attended the meeting with Hoyer.

But opponents argue that the tobacco tax is an unstable revenue source that won’t answer the state’s unmet health care needs.

‘‘Is the juice really worth the squeeze from a financial perspective?” asked House Minority Whip Christopher B. Shank (R-Dist. 2B) of Hagerstown.

Some lawmakers who may have supported the tax increase last year won’t stomach a state hike on top of a federal one, warned Del. Ronald A. George (R-Dist. 30) of Arnold. ‘‘I think people on the cusp will have a problem with that.”

Voting for a statewide tobacco tax would be thorny for some lawmakers if the federal government plans to do the same, said John Bambacus, a former state senator and a political science professor at Frostburg State University.

‘‘It would make it both less likely and more difficult if the feds were to exert their primacy in this particular area because the smokers in this state ... are going to get hit twice,” he said.

However, DeMarco pointed to polling data from the late 1990s when the tobacco settlement caused cigarette prices to increase by more than 50 cents per pack and support for a tobacco tax increase did not wane. Maryland increased its tobacco tax by 30 cents in 1999 and by 34 cents in 2002 to help pay for the landmark Thornton education plan.

‘‘We believe, both from a policy and political perspective, the support should not change,” DeMarco said.