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Will GOP meet its 14⁄5 goal?

Republicans still plan sweeping changes in the General Assembly this year, but political realities may block their path

Friday, July 7, 2006

ANNAPOLIS — Monday was the day of reckoning for Republicans intent on whittling down the Democratic majority in the General Assembly.

Three years ago, Maryland Republican Party Chairman John M. Kane strutted around the State House on Sine Die with a three-ring binder emblazoned with the words ‘‘Target List.”

Kane’s list of targeted Democrats was proof of a reinvigorated state Republican Party beaming with confidence that newly elected Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. would bring fundamental change to Maryland’s political structure, which had been dominated by Democrats for decades.

‘‘It’s going to get bigger,” Kane said three years ago. ‘‘We’re not mentioning any names, but you know who they are. ... Pretty much any Democrat in ‘Ehrlich-friendly’ districts are fair game.”

Three years later — with all the talk of target lists and Ehrlich’s pledge to knock off at least 14 House and five Senate members in November — whether Republicans can field the candidates to realign the political landscape in Annapolis is a matter of debate.

‘‘I sense that there is a step forward toward strong two-party government, but I don’t think there is a sea change,” said Douglas B. Riley, a former Baltimore County councilman and likely GOP challenger to Sen. James Brochin (D-Dist. 42) of Towson. ‘‘While we Republicans were very optimistic when the governor was elected that there would be a sea change, that was probably unrealistic.”

Even Ehrlich, who has said his re-election would not be successful unless Republicans can make gains in the General Assembly, seemed to dampen expectations last week. The governor told reporters at the Maryland Municipal League convention in Ocean City that he was confident that the GOP would pick up seats, but acknowledged that the 14 and 5 combination may be hard to reach.

Ehrlich said he hoped the Republican minority would grow from 43 to at least 50 in the House and that GOP Senate minority would increase from 14 to the ‘‘high teens.”

Sticking with 14 and 5

Still, GOP spokeswoman Audra Miller said Thursday that she is optimistic that 35 to 40 House seats and 15 Senate seats could change hands. The GOP is not fielding candidates in 15 Senate and 31 House districts this year. These unchallenged districts are largely in the Democratic bastions of Montgomery, Prince George’s County and Baltimore city.

‘‘We’re being strategic and smart in the races that we’re targeting,” Miller said. ‘‘We could have approached this as saying that no one would go unopposed, but we would rather have quality over quantity.”

Democratic leaders in Annapolis, meanwhile, are speculating that instead of losing seats — once considered inevitable in the wake of Ehrlich’s election — the party could expand its majority.

Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley, the presumed Democratic gubernatorial nominee, told The Gazette editorial board on Thursday that Democrats would make gains in the General Assembly.

‘‘As the leader of the party, I will be doing more to elect Democrats around the state,” he said. ‘‘Unlike four years ago, there is a different dynamic at play.”

House Speaker Michael E. Busch said the Maryland Republican Party was immature in touting its target list years before an election. Busch, who is targeted for defeat by an Ehrlich-supported GOP slate in his Annapolis-area district, predicted that he, Del. Virginia P. Clagett (D-Dist. 30) of West River and another Democrat would win in November.

‘‘When you have someone like John Kane parading around the State House with a list like that, it shows a real lack of political maturity,” said Busch (D-Dist. 30) of Annapolis. ‘‘You can’t just prop someone up and say, ‘You’re running.’ I don’t see how they will pull off what they’re trying to do.”

Some Democratic targets

Democrats could knock off Republicans like Dels. W. Daniel Mayer (R-Dist. 28) of Newburg in Charles County, Susan K. McComas (R-Dist. 35B) of Bel Air and Sheryl Davis Kohl (R-Dist. 34A) of Aberdeen, Busch said. He also mentioned that Anne Arundel County Councilwoman Pamela G. Beidle, a term-limited Democrat, could defeat Del. Terry R. Gilleland Jr. (R-Dist. 32) of Linthicum Heights.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. acknowledged that a handful of his moderate Democrats face stiff challenges this fall, but he predicted this week that the election may end up with the same split of 33 Democrats to 14 Republicans, which is where the Senate stood in 2003.

The race in Howard County’s District 13 offers the best opportunity for a Democratic pick-up, with Howard County Executive James N. Robey challenging Sen. Sandra B. Schrader, a Republican moderate, said Miller (D-Dist. 27) of Chesapeake Beach.

Miller’s hopes for a Democratic pick-up are tempered by the realization that the retirement of Sen. Philip C. Jimeno (D-Dist. 31) of Brooklyn Park could result in a Republican successor.

‘‘Those are the two most volatile races, as I see it,” Miller said.

Unlike the 2002 election, he said, polls show that President Bush is unpopular in Maryland, which could be a drag on down-ticket Republicans this year.

‘‘When these candidates examine the lay of the land and lack of a positive record from this administration, they will realize that Maryland is not a good place to be identified with the president and his party,” Miller said.

GOP’s field of dreams

GOP strategist Kevin Igoe, who has clients across the state, sees ample opportunity for Republican gains.

On the Senate side, Igoe said, St. Mary’s County commissioners’ President Thomas F. McKay (R) presents a strong challenge to Sen. Roy P. Dyson (D-Dist. 29) of Great Mills, and Baltimore lawyer Craig Borne will test Sen. Katherine A. Klausmeier (D-Dist. 8) of Baltimore.

Igoe, a former state GOP executive director, also pointed to Riley, Republican Del. Herbert H. McMillan’s bid to unseat Sen. John C. Astle (D-Dist. 30) of Annapolis and the Jimeno seat as fertile ground.

Igoe is also consulting for several GOP delegate hopefuls, including Calvert County commissioners’ President David F. Hale, who is targeting Del. P. Sue Kullen (D-Dist. 27B) of Port Republic, and Salisbury businessman Michael J. James, who is taking on House Appropriations Chairman Norman H. Conway (D-Dist. 38B) of Salisbury.

‘‘I think there were some real coups out there in recruitment,” Igoe said.

There have also been some shortcomings in the GOP recruitment.

The Ehrlich administration tried unsuccessfully to convince Del. John R. Leopold (R-Dist. 31) of Pasadena, who’s running for Anne Arundel county executive, to run for the Senate, and were rebuffed by former delegate James E. Rzepkowski (R) and Anne Arundel County Councilman C. Edward Middlebrooks (R) to run against Sen. James E. DeGrange Jr. (D-Dist. 32) of Glen Burnie.

Jon Vandenheuvel, a Severn resident who runs a company founded by former Oklahoma congressman J.C. Watts (R), is now running against DeGrange.

Richard I. Martel Jr., a Catonsville Republican running against Sen. Edward J. Kasemeyer (D-Dist. 12) of Columbia, predicted that voters will turn on incumbents in the fall, particularly those in districts where Ehrlich performed well in 2002.

‘‘The thing I’m hearing is there are many Maryland citizens who believe the balance of power is out of kilter in Annapolis,” said Martel, a lawyer. ‘‘I’m optimistic that when Marylanders go to vote in November, they’re going to send a clear message to incumbents that they’re not happy with what’s been going on down in Annapolis.”