With Duncan out of the race, what’s next?

Running mate Simms poised to run for attorney general; O’Malley, Ehrlich angle for exec’s supporters

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Click here to enlarge this photo Laurie DeWitt⁄The Gazette While County Executive Douglas M. Duncan focuses on his health, the gubernatorial pictureis shifting.

The first concrete consequence is that his running mate, Stuart O. Simms, will announce Thursday his entry into attorney general’s race, sources close the campaign said.

More fallout is expected from Duncan’s withdrawal. Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley now has a clear path to the Democratic nomination. And the head-to-head contest with Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) now begins months ahead of schedule.

And to some, it means the party is galvanized for a November victory.

‘‘I have never seen the Democratic Party more united to defeating any Republican in any race I can think of,” said Lanny Davis, a Montgomery County lawyer who has been an operative in national and Maryland Democratic politics.

In a 10-minute address in the County Executive Building in Rockville on June 22, Duncan revealed his diagnosis and said he would no longer seek the Democratic nomination.

‘‘I will not be a candidate on the ballot for any office this year,” he told about 150 people.

He offered his support to O’Malley, and pledged to help get other Democrats elected. But Duncan said he needed to take time off to get well.

‘‘Now it’s time for me to focus on my health,” he said.

Duncan is expected to return to his job as county executive after taking several weeks off. No time frame has been established for his return, said David S. Weaver, who has served as Duncan’s spokesman in the county and on the campaign trail.

Had Duncan stepped down from his county job, Chief Administrative Officer Bruce F. Romer would have stepped in, per the county charter.

Council President George L. Leventhal, who choked up as he was asked about Duncan’s decision, said he had no concerns about Duncan being unable to finish out his term.

‘‘Doug is the best executive in Montgomery County’s history,” said Leventhal (D-At large) of Takoma Park. ‘‘He was the best man running for governor.”

Gail Ewing, a former county councilwoman who now teaches political science at Montgomery College, said the momentum in the primary race was on Duncan’s side. Early on, polls said he was 22 points behind O’Malley. More recent surveys showed he was closing the gap.

‘‘In every campaign, it’s harder for the candidate to stay out in front,” Ewing said. ‘‘Duncan had every chance of winning this election.”

Our opinion Mr. Duncan’s bravery Gazette editorial Barry Rascovar Duncan makes the ‘right move’ Blair Lee Maryland politics after Duncan Related coverage * Between applause and smiles, a politician bows * Colleagues, constituents, neighbors saddened by Duncan’s withdrawal * Candidate’s withdrawal spotlights a disease that affects millions of people * Building county with a ‘can-do’ attitude * Reaction to Duncan's withdrawal * Transcript of Duncan's statement Multimedia Photo gallery: Doug Duncan in pictures Graphic: Timeline of a political career Text: Timeline

As the campaign wore on, Duncan’s depression became more apparent to those close to him, Weaver said.

Duncan would spend half of his days either in his campaign office in Silver Spring or at his home in Rockville. He would not make the fund-raising calls he needed to make daily, or agree to go out campaigning, Weaver said. The only time Duncan felt comfortable was behind a podium, speaking to crowds instead of individuals.

On June 19, Duncan saw a doctor, was diagnosed with severe depression and given medication, said Scott Arceneaux, the Duncan campaign manager.

Duncan met with his family, his top campaign officials and political consultants before making his decision to drop out.

Weaver and Arceneaux said they could not point to a single event that triggered the depression.

This week O’Malley began wooing the county executive’s supporters. The mayor said Tuesday that he and his running mate, Del. Anthony G. Brown, have been ‘‘burning up the phone lines” in encouraging Duncan supporters to join their campaign.

‘‘I don’t see any Democrat [in office] in Montgomery County as in a position to do anything but support O’Malley and seek O’Malley’s support in their respective races,” said Del. Luis R.Z. Simmons (D-Dist. 17) of Rockville.

‘‘I would believe there is going to be a percentage of Democratic loyalists who will flock to the O’Malley-Brown ticket to ensure Ehrlich doesn’t win re-election,” said Del. Melony G. Griffith, who has been a stalwart Duncan supporter from Prince George’s County.

‘‘And others would flock to other statewide races, like the attorney general’s race,” said Griffith (D-Dist. 25) of Upper Marlboro.

That isn’t to say the Ehrlich campaign won’t fight for the hearts and minds of Duncan supporters.

‘‘Over the next five months, the campaign will make a concerted effort to appeal to Duncan’s supporters that ultimately share the priorities of the Ehrlich administration: education, fiscal responsibility, economic development and transportation,” Ehrlich campaign spokeswoman Shareese N. DeLeaver said.

Cathy Faraone, 33, of Gaithersburg, a registered Democrat who supported Duncan, now says she will cast her vote for Ehrlich and predicts that other mothers will do the same.

‘‘I like [Ehrlich’s] family values,” she said, strolling two of her four children around The Kentlands in Gaithersburg last week. ‘‘He’s much more personable. I don’t go by politics as much as I go toward, you know, personality.”

Part of Duncan’s support came from Montgomery County businesses. The county’s Chamber of Commerce endorsed him the day before he dropped out of the race.

Chamber President Richard N. Parsons said the organization’s board and executive committee will meet to decide its next step.

‘‘The broader business community support, that’s always something that needs to be earned, not assumed,” Parsons said.

The chamber’s board is bipartisan, with members who will naturally gravitate to O’Malley and Ehrlich.

Another question: What happens to Duncan’s war chest?

His campaign contributions are divided into two accounts, and he has several options for each account, said Jared DeMarinis, director of the State Board of Elections’ Candidacy and Campaign Finance Division.

The campaign has about $600,000, part of which is in the Duncan-Simms slate account. All that money could go to the Simms campaign for attorney general.

The majority is in a candidate account, which Duncan can keep active for a future run for office, DeMarinis said.

Or, he can make transfers to other accounts — including the slate account — at $6,000 a shot. He is not limited to the $10,000 election-cycle limit in place for individual donors.

DeMarinis said Duncan also can close the account, which means he has to satisfy any debts against the campaign, then several steps are possible. He can return the money, pro-rated, to contributors. Or he can donate it to charity, the central committee, an institution of higher learning, or a board of education.

‘‘At the end of the day, it can never result in personal funds,” DeMarinis said.

If the account is inactive for eight years, the board of elections would ask him to declare a candidacy or close the account.

As a gubernatorial candidate, Duncan had endorsed a plan to double the state’s cigarette tax and use the resulting $211 million to expand health care programs for the uninsured and the underinsured.

The Maryland Citizens’ Health Initiative has championed the initiative, and the group plans to start talking with candidates next week, said Vincent DeMarco, MCHI’s president. The Montgomery County Council, along with Councilman Thomas E. Perez, endorsed the plan Tuesday. Perez is running for attorney general.

DeMarco was confident his organization would get the tax passed in the next General Assembly.

‘‘We have a powerful coalition and we’re going to make it happen,” DeMarco said.

Staff Writers Thomas Dennison, C. Benjamin Ford, Janel Davis and Jaime Ciavarra contributed to this report.