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Duncan makes the ‘right move’

Monday, June 26, 2006

Always expect the unexpected in politics. That’s what makes it hard to predict the outcome far in advance of Election Day.

Take the race for governor. Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan clearly was gaining ground on Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley in their increasingly bitter battle for the Democratic nomination. With Baltimore’s ugly homicide rate, with violence escalating on Baltimore streets as the summer heats up, and with Baltimore’s low-performing schools verging on disarray, O’Malley was going to have a rough summer fending off Duncan’s sharp attacks.

No longer.

Duncan is out of the running for governor, the mayor has the easy coronation as Democratic nominee he long sought and the entire landscape of the gubernatorial race has been transformed.

O’Malley doesn’t have to worry any more about draining his campaign account to fend off Duncan. Instead, he’ll pile up millions for his campaign over the next few months and reduce Gov. Bob Ehrlich’s fund-raising advantage. There won’t be a divisive Democratic primary, either. O’Malley will have a unified Democratic Party eager to displaced Ehrlich in November.

For Doug Duncan, last week’s decision to drop out was absolutely the right move. Your health and your family’s well-being come first. Always. It’s refreshing to see a politician on the upswing, who was gaining momentum that might have carried him all the way to the governor’s mansion, give up the chase for the right reasons.

Most politicians take the Vince Lombardi approach to their profession: ‘‘Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing.” That can be a dangerous prescription for tragedy, particularly if you have chronic, severe depression as is the case with Duncan.

An Eastern Shore congressman, William O. Mills, got caught up in the Watergate scandal, became severely depressed and put a shotgun to his head in the 1970s. Earlier, a Western Maryland state senator, George Hughes (the father of former Maryland First Lady Frances Hughes Glendening) fought a losing battle with depression and committed suicide.

The pressure on Duncan was only going to increase as he narrowed the gap with O’Malley and faced 24⁄7 campaigning and fund-raising throughout the state in hot, muggy August. Besides, Duncan doesn’t have the ‘‘killer” instinct O’Malley and Ehrlich possess. They are voracious campaigners who thrive while pressing the flesh. In contrast, when Duncan campaigns he looks like the wallflower at a teen dance party. He’s uncomfortable in such situations. Bottom line: He shares with former Vice President Walter Mondale a lack of ‘‘the fire in the belly” that most ambitious politicians possess.

So now it’s O’Malley versus Ehrlich. The two men dislike each other intensely. It will be a very nasty and very angry campaign — and a long one, too. The primary election has lost much of its sex appeal.

That’s good news for Congressman Ben Cardin and former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume, the leading U.S. Senate candidates on the Democratic side. Their race had been ignored in the high-visibility, three-way mud fight among gubernatorial contenders. Now the media will pay closer attention to that importance race.

Our opinion Mr. Duncan’s bravery Gazette editorial Related coverage * Duncan drops out * Between applause and smiles, a politician bows * Colleagues, constituents, neighbors saddened by Duncan’s withdrawal * Stresses of campaigning can bring on depression for some A legacy built on a ‘can-do’ attitude * Reaction to Duncan's withdrawal * Transcript of Duncan's statement Multimedia Photo gallery: Doug Duncan in pictures Graphic: Timeline of a political career

Duncan’s withdrawal could have an impact on the outcome, too. No longer can we expect a massive primary turnout. The chief attraction — the Duncan-O’Malley match-up — is gone. Now, only the most committed Democrats will show up to vote.

It’s tough to say who will benefit from that development. Cardin has put together a statewide network of party regulars and activists. They will turn out in September.

Mfume can count on liberal activists voting for him — and they vote in very large numbers in Democratic primaries. He’ll also need a very large turnout among African Americans to win. That could be tough to achieve without a riveting race for governor at the top of the ticket.

Another development flowing from Duncan’s announcement could help Mfume. Duncan’s running mate, Baltimore attorney Stuart Simms, now is free to run for attorney general. If he does, we could see a major effort by black politicians on his behalf. Mfume would benefit from this, too.

Should Simms declare for attorney general this week he immediately becomes a strong favorite.

Montgomery County State’s Attorney Doug Gansler and Montgomery County Councilman Tom Perez will split the vote in their home jurisdiction. With Simms in the race, neither Gansler nor Perez can run up overwhelming numbers in majority-black Prince George’s County.

Simms’ biggest advantage is that he’ll be regarded as the popular, hometown candidate in the Baltimore region, where the legal establish has yearned for its own attorney general candidate. He could develop momentum that will be difficult to stop.

He’s already got Senate President Mike Miller in his corner. Look for a stampede of elected officials and legal VIPs to endorse Simms. He was a solid cabinet secretary under Parris Glendening. He twice was elected state’s attorney in Baltimore. He’s got a gilt-edge, Ivy League resume. He’s popular with legislators and within the legal community. And he’d be Maryland’s first African American attorney general.

If Simms wins, he can thank Doug Duncan. By dropping out of the governor’s race at the last moment, Duncan liberated his running mate in a way that gives Simms a running start in the attorney general contest. If Duncan transfers his campaign funds to Simms, the Baltimore lawyer will be in an enviable position.

Duncan role in the fall campaigns will be muted. He isn’t likely to show up at many events. As a loyal Democrat, he endorsed O’Malley but it was a lukewarm statement. He wasn’t fond of O’Malley’s campaign tactics and he’s no fan of Ehrlich, either. Duncan probably will focus on running Montgomery County’s government, where the pressures are tolerable and familiar after 11 years as its chief executive.

Don’t count Duncan out as a public official. He could surface in a future cabinet post in Annapolis. Private-sector opportunities could be numerous since Duncan is widely acknowledged — and admired — for his management skills. He’s made plenty of solid friends among Montgomery’s corporate and business leaders.

The good news for Duncan is that with proper medication and treatment he can restore equilibrium to his life. Politics does not have to be a lifetime career. Indeed, Maryland has way too many career politicians. It’s a factor in the growing disconnect between Annapolis and ordinary citizens. It is one of the reasons both O’Malley and Ehrlich are encountering disillusioned, angry voters. How that anger is expressed in November could determine the outcome of their two-way race for governor.

Barry Rascovar is a communications consultant in the Baltimore area. His Wednesday morning commentaries can be heard on WYPR, 88.1 FM. His e-mail address is brascovar@hotmail.com.