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TOWSON — When Chris Cavey sizes up Republican prospects for Maryland congressional races in 2010, he sees hope beyond Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore.

His optimism lies mostly in the oddly shaped 3rd Congressional District, which stretches from Reisterstown to Highland Beach and includes some of central Maryland's most conservative pockets.

It's also a district where Republicans have fared poorly since lines were redrawn in 2002. In fact, it's been more than 80 years since a Republican held the seat (John Boynton Philip Clayton Hall, who served three terms from 1921 to 1927).

Some GOP activists have privately bemoaned the state party's inability to recruit a viable candidate and mount a competitive campaign, both in 2006 when the seat was open and last year when Rep. John P. Sarbanes had only one term under his belt. Neither GOP nominee — John White in 2006 and Thomas E. "Pinkston" Harris in 2008 — received 35 percent of the vote.

Nevertheless, some Republicans believe they can wage more than a quixotic campaign in 2010 in both the 2nd and 3rd Congressional districts.

One chief reason is the flagging economy, which Cavey believes is fueling voter resentment toward the majority party in Washington. And, Democrats are likely to play more defense next year, while Republicans will look to take hold of the "change" mantle that helped propel President Obama's candidacy.

"I think it's an idea of people wanting something different to happen," said Cavey, the state GOP's 1st vice chairman. "They're not happy with their situation, and if the economy continues the way it is or gets to the bottom and remains flat, I think there's going to be a lot of change, regardless of party, come the next election."

For his part, Sarbanes (D-Dist. 3) of Towson isn't taking his re-election for granted.

"I am very mindful of the fact that the anger and frustration that was expressed in those two elections has hardly dissipated," he said last week of the 2006 and 2008 elections that saw Democrats gain 52 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 14 seats in the Senate.

That dissatisfaction was on display at a recent community forum in Elkridge. The largely conservative-leaning crowd took umbrage with Sarbanes' views on health care reform, the government bailout of the automobile industry, rising unemployment rates and even his refusal to support a bill requiring presidential candidates to show proof of citizenship.

Those are several of the issues prompting more businesspeople to consider running for office, said Chuck Gast, who chairs the state Republican Party's candidate recruitment and development committee.

On Thursday, a Harford County lawyer became the first Republican to declare his intent to run against four-term U.S. Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D) of Baltimore in 2010.

In a news release announcing his candidacy, James B. Rutledge III outlined his "Campaign for Freedom," which focuses on ending what he calls "excessive taxation, reckless spending and stifling regulation," while promoting school choice.

"I will be guided by my belief that our greatest hope is not found in an expanding and unaffordable bureaucracy, but is found in the hearts and minds of a free people," he said in the announcement.

Two or three potential candidates in both the 2nd and 3rd Congressional districts are testing the waters, but Gast acknowledged that Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Dist. 2) of Cockeysville will be a tougher foe than Sarbanes, who has less experience and a voting record that does not accurately reflect the views of his constituents, Gast believes.

Couple that with voter dissatisfaction in parts of the district toward Obama and Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), and the right candidate has a chance, said Gast, who declined to name potential GOP candidates.

"I think what the Democratic Party did three years ago by tying Michael Steele and Bob Ehrlich to an unpopular president in George Bush is the same thing that's going to cause them heartaches this year when we tie all their people to O'Malley and Obama," he explained. "You live and die by your associations."

But Thomas F. Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County sees no hope for Republicans in the 3rd District. The eldest son of legendary former Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes has enormous name recognition and has represented the district well, he said.

"John Sarbanes can take it nice and easy," Schaller said.

The GOP, Schaller said, ought to concentrate its resources on regaining the 1st Congressional District it lost last year when Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. upset state Sen. Andrew P. Harris (R-Dist. 7) of Cockeysville, who plans to run again in 2010.

Because incumbents are most vulnerable in their first term, the 1st District should be a priority, said Brian Griffiths, president of the Anne Arundel County Young Republicans and a conservative blogger.

The GOP missed an opportunity in 2008 to enlist a strong challenger against Sarbanes, he added. Had that happened, it might have shifted enough Democratic resources away from the District 1 race for Harris to win, Griffiths said.

Anything beyond reclaiming the 1st District and retaining the seat held by Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett (R-Dist. 6) of Buckeystown may be unrealistic for 2010, he said. Instead, the GOP may do best to maximize its electoral opportunities in General Assembly races.

Still, Gast said Sarbanes won't get a free pass, and he won't be able to rely solely on his surname to stay in office.

"If it was not somebody with the name of Sarbanes, he would have had a tough time winning that last election," insisted Gast. "If his name was Joe Smith, I think it would have been a whole different ballgame."