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Countywide homicide rates in Prince George's are down so far this year compared with 2008, but commercial robberies continue to increase, according to Prince George's County Police Department records.

There were 123 commercial robberies, thefts at businesses, between Jan. 1 and April 6, up more than 25 percent from the same three-month period the year before, said police spokesman Maj. Andy Ellis.

Ellis said police started to notice the increase in commercial robberies around November 2008 but said it is not clear whether the trend is related to the economic recession.

"There's some sense that the economy might be playing a role in this," Ellis said. "[There are robbers] who might have fallen on hard economic times, who we wouldn't see doing these crimes a year ago."

Kenny Rajpara, the manager of Oak Crest Liquors in Capitol Heights, said his store has been robbed at least four times in the last seven years. He said the economy is making him increasingly worried about crime, especially after his brother's store in Brice, in Charles County, was robbed March 31.

"They don't have money and many people, they don't have anything to do," Rajpara said. "They have guns. Maybe they're going to shoot you, who knows?"

There were 29 homicides in the first three months of 2009, only one more than during the same period in 2008, despite a rash of high-profile murders that included double homicides in Rosaryville on March 26 and in the upscale Oak Creek community in Upper Marlboro in January, as well as two mother-daughter killings in January and March in Largo.

The homicide rate had increased towards the end of 2008, rising from 11 in October to 19 in December — nine more than in December 2007 and the highest monthly total since at least the beginning of 2007.

Ellis noted that homicide rates often increase towards the end of the year, and researchers warned against speculating about the causes of crime trends based on limited data.

"It's very hard to make any kind of huge claims about short-term fluctuations," said Alex Piquero, a criminologist at the University of Maryland, College Park. "I would not attribute these increases to any specific cause."

Piquero said it is not clear whether the economy affects crime rates but said the recession is more likely to have an impact on property crime than on violent crime.

"It's controversial," he said. "There's no clear evidence."

Overall violent crime has also dropped, decreasing 10 percent between Jan. 1 and April 6, 2008, compared with the same period in 2007, Ellis said. Property crime was down 16 percent, muggings were down 7 percent, total robberies decreased by 5 percent and carjackings were down by 50 percent, he said.

Roberta Roper, the board chair for the Maryland Crime Victims' Resource Center, a nonprofit that has an office in Upper Marlboro and provides legal aid, counseling and other services to crime victims, said she is not aware of any increase in crime in recent months. But that is not necessarily something to be proud of, she said.

"The sad reality is that crime throughout the state has remained fairly consistent," she said.

E-mail Greg Holzheimer at gholzheimer@gazette.net.