Turnout is key to congressional races

Romney withdrawal may shake things up in 1st District

State Sens. Andrew P. Harris and E. J. Pipkin have waged a bitter campaign to unseat Gilchrest, attacking each other almost as much as the incumbent.

But Romney’s abandonment virtually sews up the Republican nomination for McCain, with former Arkansas Gov. Michael D. Huckabee trailing far behind. And that, observers said, means fewer Republicans may go to the polls.

Advantage Harris and Pipkin? Not necessarily.

‘‘This race has been so heated, has had so much advertising and so much media attention, that I think the voters are paying attention, and I think supporters of Senator Harris, supporters of Senator Pipkin, supporters of Wayne Gilchrest are still going to be motivated to go out,” said H. Harry Basehart, a political science professor at Salisbury University.

Neither of the challengers are convinced that a lower turnout will give them a bump.

‘‘There’s also another school of thought that says the more people that turn up are the people who want change, and they’re the ones that are motivated to turn out in a primary election,” said Pipkin (R-Dist. 36) of Elkton.

In such a race, the candidate with the strongest get-out-the-vote network will have the biggest advantage, said James Gimpel, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, College Park. ‘‘It will be not the one who raised the most money, but the one who put the most effort into a building a ground game.”

In both cases, that could be Harris (R-Dist. 7) of Cockeysville, who has been campaigning across the vast district, which spans the Chesapeake Bay, for eight months.

‘‘We felt pretty confident that whether it is an average turnout or a low turnout, we were going to do well,” Harris said. ‘‘We’re the only [campaign] with a very broad-based volunteer get-out-the-vote effort. The lower the turnout gets, the more important our get-out-the-vote effort becomes.”

Both challengers have sought to appeal to conservative Republicans, who are most likely to turn out on Tuesday, regardless of the state of the presidential race.

Lobbyist Donald Murphy, a former Baltimore County delegate who is leading McCain’s Maryland campaign, said Thursday morning before Romney dropped out that Harris and Pipkin should root for McCain to have locked up the nomination to decrease turnout.

‘‘The more people that show up, the broader the spectrum of people who are voting,” he said. ‘‘The more moderate people sort of dilute the vote of the conservatives when you get larger numbers.”

Wynn, Edwards trade barbs in final days

It’s a different tale in the 4th Congressional District, where the neck-and-neck battle for the Democratic presidential nomination is expected to shatter the previous mark for turnout.

That would presumably help incumbent Albert R. Wynn of Mitchellville stave off a repeat challenge from community activist Donna F. Edwards of Fort Washington, who fell less than 3,000 votes shy of pulling a political stunner in 2006.

But Edwards is hoping to cash in on the ‘‘change” movement that has helped propel U.S. Sen. Barack H. Obama of Illinois ahead of U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

‘‘What you really see is there is this tidal wave of change sweeping across the country, and it’s going to crest right here in the 4th Congressional District on Tuesday,” she said on Thursday. ‘‘We believe that whether voter turnout is heavy or voter turnout is low, we’re going to be able to take it over the top on Tuesday.”

But Wynn isn’t going down easily. He trotted out several dozen elected officials at a rally in Annapolis on Wednesday to highlight his support among the political establishment.

‘‘Change is very important. We want to talk about change in the next election, but you only make a change if it’s for the better,” said Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Dist. 27) of Chesapeake Beach. ‘‘Albert Wynn has done the job and he’s doing it very well.”

Supporters trumpeted his influence as a seven-term congressman who has gained a position of leadership.

‘‘It would be a sad, shameful thing for us to throw that away and start all over again at the back of the room ... when we have a leader who has proven himself,” said Del. Anne Healey (D-Dist. 22) of Hyattsville.

And Wynn rejected the idea that voters want change in the district, not only in the White House. ‘‘The change people are looking for is change at the top,” he said.

The Democratic primary is one of the most closely watched races among national political insiders, said David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, a Capitol Hill publication that tracks congressional campaigns.

‘‘There’s no level of agreement within the Democratic Party in this race,” he said. ‘‘It’s really a battle between a new style of progressives who don’t associate themselves with Prince George’s County machine politics and old guard voters who have been at this for a long time. This is a generational matchup between them.”

Staff Writer C. Benjamin Ford contributed to this report.