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Trailing, Duncan expected to go negative

Friday, Jan. 20, 2006

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The thought of Duncan hammering O’Malley while Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) has a much larger campaign treasury, no primary challenger and the power of incumbency is causing leading Democrats considerable queasiness.

Many top Democrats are worried that a bloody battle between Duncan and O’Malley will make it all the more difficult to unite the party after the September primary. And that will diminish the chances of retaking the governor’s office, with Ehrlich hoarding his resources for the final campaign sprint between September and November.

‘‘I like both [Duncan and O’Malley], but there are a lot of us who wish there was just one candidate who we could all get behind and direct the money to,” said Howard County Executive James Robey (D), who has not endorsed Duncan or O’Malley. ‘‘The fact is, neither one of them is going to have as much money as Ehrlich.”

Campaign finance reports filed this week revealed a two-pronged problem for Duncan, according to analysts. One, Duncan trailed O’Malley by $3 million in fund-raising since last January. Two, the Duncan campaign spent $1.4 million and only took in $1.3 million over the past year. He still has $1.36 million on hand.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Dist. 27) of Chesapeake Beach refrained from saying that Duncan needs to re-evaluate whether to continue his campaign, but did say his fund-raising deficit was ‘‘drastic.”

O’Malley supporters seized on the Duncan campaign’s ‘‘burn rate,” noting that Duncan spent nearly $660,000 on salaries for campaign workers, which was $200,000 more than O’Malley spent.

‘‘When you’re a county executive of one of the wealthiest counties in the state, fiscal responsibility isn’t exactly one of the first things on your mind, but in a place like Baltimore, you make every cent count,” said Del. Neil F. Quinter (D-Dist. 13) of Columbia, an O’Malley supporter. ‘‘It’s the quicksand campaign. He’s sinking.”

Duncan aides said that they are ready and willing to address O’Malley’s record in Baltimore and that they are preparing more aggressive and more pointed challenges in the coming months.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Duncan’s decision to stay in the race forces him to train his guns on O’Malley.

‘‘In strategic terms, Duncan has no other choice,” said Sabato, who has written books about negative campaigns. ‘‘If you’re going to roll the dice, you’re going to pick the negative dice.”

In order for Duncan to win, ‘‘Democrats have to start believing that O’Malley is not their best choice,” Sabato continued. ‘‘Only negative attacks can produce those doubts.”

Since he announced his campaign in October, Duncan has tried to contrast his record of success in Montgomery County with the social ills of Baltimore city such as its high crime rate and school system problems. Democratic leaders have cautioned Duncan against negative campaigning, and several Democrats said this week that more shots at Baltimore could cause more harm than good.

‘‘We’ve met the enemy, and they are us,” said one House Democrat who requested anonymity to speak freely about the race.

Attacking O’Malley carries positives and negatives for Duncan. O’Malley could be wounded and Duncan can begin to gain ground. Or Duncan could run the risk of looking desperate and alienating Democratic voters.

‘‘People are tired of all the fighting,” said Anne Arundel County Executive Janet S. Owens (D). ‘‘They’ve seen Democrats and Republicans fighting, but I think a lot of Democrats could be turned off if the primary gets ugly.”

Duncan gave a preview of future attacks while talking about Baltimore’s schools on Wednesday after he made an appeal for more school construction dollars to the state’s Board of Public Works. Duncan did several interviews with Baltimore television reporters laying out the findings of a 2004 legislative audit that showed widespread dysfunction in the city school system.

‘‘I don’t want him in charge of education for the entire state,” Duncan said of O’Malley.

In an interview with The Gazette, Duncan dismissed the importance of his fund-raising deficit and vowed to continue his campaign. He said the expenditures he made early on were part of his strategy of hiring campaign staff to help build an infrastructure in counties throughout Maryland.

Duncan also said that his lower fund-raising number compared to O’Malley’s would not harm his efforts to land a running mate. (A senior Duncan campaign aide said a running mate would be named before the end of the legislative session in April.)

Ehrlich, meanwhile, reported raising $10.8 million and has $8.4 million in cash on hand, a record. Ehrlich bragged that 95 percent of his money came from Maryland donors.

The governor laughed out loud during an interview Thursday when told that O’Malley and Democratic Party officials were saying that his fund-raising number fell short of having $10 million in cash-on-hand.

‘‘I’ve raised more money than any candidate in the state’s history, we haven’t even really begun and they’re saying that we fell short?” Ehrlich said mid-laugh. ‘‘How can they keep a straight face with this stuff?”

Ehrlich said he fully expects Duncan to turn up the heat on O’Malley in the coming months.

‘‘[O’Malley] has to defend the indefensible,” Ehrlich said. ‘‘All of that is fair game.”

Ehrlich officials seemed to be looking forward to a Duncan-O’Malley smackdown.

‘‘It’s only a matter of time until the bloodbath begins,” said Paul E. Schurick, Ehrlich’s communications director.