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Under watchful eyes

Gubernatorial candidates will keep tabs on 2006 session to see what happens — and what doesn’t

Friday, Jan. 6, 2006

Click here to enlarge this photo Illustration by Julie Abramson for The Gazette

So, as the Maryland General Assembly re-convenes next week for its 421st annual legislative session, every bill, every statement, every hearing and every action must be seen through the prism of partisan politics.

The 90-day face-off could determine the political fortunes of Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. and his two Democratic challengers, Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan and Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley. All three men will be closely following the events in the capital, jockeying for advantage in the fall campaigns.

Ehrlich is entering the final year of his first term with an ambitious legislative agenda that he hopes will bolster his image heading into his re-election campaign.

His agenda will have to clear the Democrat-controlled General Assembly, whose members have the twin goals of wounding the governor while helping their own nominee and themselves.

‘‘The tone has been set for a very combative legislative session,” said Patrick Gonzales, an Annapolis pollster who closely monitors state politics. ‘‘Everyone is trying to score political points, and because of that this session will end this spring with a better than good chance that not a lot has been accomplished.”

Former senator Robert R. Neall, a Republican turned Democrat from Anne Arundel County, commented: ‘‘Normally in election-year sessions, if you got out of town without disgracing yourself, you chalked that up as a victory.

‘‘This year may be different.”

The sentiment among lobbyists and political analysts is that this year’s session has all the makings of a legislative train wreck.

Ehrlich is promising a politically popular legislative agenda to include $280 million for school construction, an increase over his past three budgets. He is also promising to cut property taxes and push several health-related initiatives — including a measure aimed at boosting the state’s biotechnology community by funding a new stem cell research building at one of Maryland’s universities.

The one issue for which Ehrlich has crusaded unsuccessfully the past three sessions — legalizing slot machines — is not getting much attention. Ehrlich is likely to sponsor a similar bill, but the stiff opposition in the House of Delegates does not seem to be weakening.

‘‘When your economy is going as well as Maryland’s and you’re running a budget surplus, there’s no need to address an issue that I believe is a regressive tax on the poorest individuals in Maryland,” said House Speaker Michael E. Busch (D-Dist. 30) of Annapolis.

‘The people’s business’

Maryland’s red-hot economy, however, has led to a $1.7 billion budget surplus ($600 million of which has yet to be allocated). Ehrlich believes that will give him the financial flexibility and muscle to push his agenda through a hostile legislature.

‘‘We’re going to be aggressive,” Ehrlich said between sips of Maryland crab soup at Chick and Ruth’s Delly in Annapolis. ‘‘You can do one of two things in an election year: Lay low or hope, trust and expect people to get the people’s business done.

‘‘I’m going to expect to get the people’s business done.”

Republican lawmakers have a more realistic attitude.

‘‘We are looking forward to this last session of this term in doing some real work,” said House Minority Whip Anthony J. O’Donnell (R-Dist. 29C) of Lusby. ‘‘However, if past is prologue, I don’t necessarily expect the majority party to take us up on that offer.”

Ehrlich’s relationship with the legislature has been marked more by disagreements than successes.

Partisan battles will begin shortly after the session starts, as Democrats move to override a series of Ehrlich’s vetoes from the last session. The vetoed bills range from election-related initiatives favored by Democrats to raising the minimum wage by $1 to a health care initiative that would require large corporations to spend 8 percent of their payroll on employee health care.

To override a veto, three-fifths of each chamber must approve, which means 29 yea votes in the Senate and 85 in the House of Delegates. Thirty-three Democrats sit in the Senate and 98 in the House.

Indeed, the blamesmanship and partisan maneuvering that characterized the past three legislative sessions have already begun.

If the legislative gears grind to a stop, Ehrlich said, ‘‘it will occur for a reason that will come from outside this administration.”

But that, he said, ‘‘does not fall into the category of new news.”

Fodder for campaigns

Duncan and O’Malley are expected to be in Annapolis a lot this session as they push their own agendas while gathering up campaign talking points. They are expected to one-up each other and spend a considerable amount of their time criticizing Ehrlich.

‘‘There is a lot at stake for the governor this session,” said David S. Weaver, a Duncan spokesman. ‘‘This governor’s record of accomplishments is pretty weak.”

Like other local government leaders, Duncan and O’Malley want to see $400 million spent on school construction next year. Both will be pushing for air quality standards that Ehrlich opposes and for state-funded embryonic stem cell research, a hot-button issue opposed by the governor’s conservative Republican base.

Jonathan Epstein, an O’Malley spokesman, said that progress will be made by the General Assembly when it overrides the governor’s vetoes, not through Ehrlich’s leadership.

The week before the Assembly’s Jan. 11 opening, Ehrlich plans to roll out his legislative agenda, aides said. Events around the state will be devoted to education, science, health care and social issues such as cracking down on sexual predators and bolstering the state’s programs for individuals with disabilities.

‘‘I think you’ll see issue-specific, policy-specific progress this year,” Ehrlich said.

There are few signs that Ehrlich is going to expend time and political capital on passing slots this year. If the controversial issue could not get through the Assembly in the first three years of Ehrlich’s term, it is unlikely that the arguments will be resolved this year.

‘‘Politically, those types of issues are avoided in an election year,” Gonzales said of slots.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr., the legislature’s leading slots advocate, did not seem optimistic this year, even though he has been talking about using slots to generate revenue for a tax cut to military retirees, lower property taxes and higher teacher pensions.

Stem cells, schools

An organized advocacy campaign calling for taxpayer money to be spent on stem cell research has been launched in the face of strong resistance from conservative Republicans and Democrats aligned with anti-abortion groups.

Paula C. Hollinger (D-Dist. 11) of Pikesville, chairwoman of the Senate Education Health and Environmental Affairs Committee, said the stem cell bill will be approved by her committee early in the session and sent to the Senate floor, where a filibuster awaits. The bill never made it to the full Senate last year because of the filibuster threat, and Miller (D-Dist. 27) of Chesapeake Beach has expressed concern that the issue revives religious and political divisions in the Senate.

Busch said embryonic stem cell research is a top priority for the House because of its benefits to the state’s biotechnology community and life sciences industry. He admitted that, as it was last year, the test will be in the Senate.

Ehrlich is expected to allocate construction money for a stem cell research facility. His advisers have confirmed that aid will be in addition to another initiative — possibly an emphasis on adult stem cell research, which is less politically explosive — whose details will be released later.

Busch and Miller said they were not aware of the specifics of Ehrlich’s agenda or budget plan. Ehrlich is promising to fully fund the Thornton K-12 education plan while boosting spending for higher education in the hopes of staving off another round of tuition hikes at Maryland’s colleges and universities.

Elections, clean air

Democrats may try to move up the September primary to June to benefit their statewide candidates. The theory is that a change would give the primary winners more time to unify the party and raise money before the general election. Democratic elders like Miller and U.S. Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (D-Dist. 5) of Mechanicsville support the change, but there is strong resistance in the House.

Utilities and environmentalists will clash again this year over an air quality bill designed to reduce harmful pollutants from power plants. Ehrlich is sponsoring his own clean air regulations that Democrats are promising to strengthen.

Power company lobbyists complain that the bill’s requirements could cause plants to shut down and electricity bills to go up. Advocates for the legislation accuse the power companies of using scare tactics designed to protect their profit margins.

Peter V.R. Franchot, a candidate for state comptroller who heads the House Appropriations environmental subcommittee, is asking top officials from the Maryland Department of Environment to testify on their relationships with power companies and efforts to thwart air quality bills. The hearing is sure to define the battle lines — and stoke partisan tensions — within the first month of the session.

‘‘The wolf should not be guarding Little Red Riding Hood,” said Franchot (D-Dist. 20) of Takoma Park.

Franchot, one of the most vocal partisans in Annapolis, said this year’s session has all the ingredients to be messy, but mused that maybe Democrats and Republicans will get along to try and impress the voters.

‘‘Ironically, this may be the year we get the most done,” he said.

Vetoes up for override

Raising the minimum wage to $6.15 an hour.

Requiring large companies to spend 8 percent of their payroll on employee health care.

Allowing voting on Saturday before election day and absentee ballots on demand.

Approving study of paper trail for electronic ballots.

Ehrlich’s agenda

*$280 million for school construction.

*Cut property taxes.

*Fund new stem cellresearch building at one of state’s universities.

*Crack down on sexual predators.

*Boost spending onhigher education.

*Fully fund ThorntonK-12 education plan.