Baltimore County Executive James T. Smith

No one in the field of potential gubernatorial candidates for 2010 is affected more by the outcome of the Ehrlich-O’Malley race than Smith.

If Ehrlich wins, the former Baltimore County Circuit Court judge and county councilman becomes the instant Democratic frontrunner. Smith is a shoo-in for re-election to a second term; he has proven to be an effective fundraiser and his profile as a pro-business moderate with two terms of executive experience in the crucial Baltimore suburbs could play well statewide.

If O’Malley wins, the calculus changes. Smith, because of term limits, would be looking for a job while O’Malley would be running for re-election in 2010 unless Mikulski retires and O’Malley decides to make the leap to Washington.

Smith may be the best positioned to run for 2010, but his top priority these days is getting O’Malley elected governor. Smith and O’Malley are sharing campaign resources such as volunteers, phone bankers, office space and mailings in an effort to drive down Ehrlich’s numbers in Baltimore County.

Another reason to keep an eye on Smith: He is surrounded by a seasoned team of advisers who have deep ties in Annapolis and have spent time as campaign operatives in Southern Maryland, Baltimore, Prince George’s and Montgomery counties.