Same-sex marriage has become the centerpiece of recent legislative debate — and likely will continue to do so for another week or two.

It is a highly personal and emotional issue in which the normal levers of political persuasion and negotiation do not apply.

On most matters before the General Assembly, the governor can persuade leaning or uncommitted lawmakers through the force of his arguments or with sweeteners such as appointments of friends to state jobs, judgeships for a favored applicant or promises of help with a bill or a local problem.

But this approach doesn’t work when it comes to divisive social issues. On such matters, legislative positions are determined largely by religious, moral or ethical beliefs.

Same-sex marriage falls into that category.

Gov. Martin O’Malley has made passage of his Civil Marriage Protection Act a major objective. Yet it is doubtful his multiple appearances and strong testimony on behalf of his bill have changed many minds.

Opponents of gay marriage frequently hold deep religious or moral objections. Those feelings can’t be blown away by the changing winds of legislative sentiment or public opinion.

Nor are those objections likely to fade in the face of heart-rending personal stories by advocates or legal arguments for equal civil rights for gays.

Roman Catholic lawmakers know their church hierarchy is deeply opposed on ecclesiastical grounds. Ministers of many large African-American churches inveigh against gay marriages in their Sunday sermons. Orthodox Jews — a growing presence in the large Baltimore Jewish community — reject such unions, as do Christian evangelicals.

Indeed, the country is deeply split on the matter. While judges in California try to make gay marriage a legal civil right, a majority of that state’s voters express opposition.

Other courts across the country have declared gay marriage a matter of equity. Yet these judges seem to be out of step with the majority: In no state has a gay marriage ballot question won voter approval. Only seven states have such a law on the books, and the last one, Washington, likely will have a referendum fight over that law in the fall.

The same thing could happen in Maryland if the governor and proponents cobble together the necessary votes in both the House of Delegates and Senate. Victory in the State House could be a prelude to a deflating letdown in November.

Recent Maryland polls show that advocates for same-sex marriage have yet to win over a majority of citizens.

A Washington Post poll last month found 53 percent of Marylanders opposed. The alarming statistic for supporters was the finding that 59 percent of African-Americans in Prince George’s County — a pivotal demographic group in a pivotal jurisdiction — are against gay marriage, with just 36 percent favoring such unions.

Similarly, a Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies poll last month showed that 60 percent of African-Americans statewide object to same-sex marriage. While 49 percent favored gay marriages versus 47 percent against — statistically a dead heat — the outcome was reversed when only those who feel strongly on the issue were questioned (34 percent for, 38 percent against). The rest of the electorate holds less-ardent views and could change their minds.

Large parts of the opposition — conservatives and tea party activists — are already well organized and ready to launch a referendum petition drive.

Those groups had no trouble gaining enough signatures last year for a ballot challenge to a bill giving children of illegal immigrants a college tuition break. It would be even easier to petition a gay marriage bill to the ballot this year.

If that happens, don’t put your money on voter approval. The political right is energized in its intense desire to defeat Barack Obama. Add two ballot questions on state laws that conservatives and Republicans vehemently oppose, and Election Day turnout among the naysayers could be extremely high.

Meanwhile, traditional areas of liberal strength — majority African-American Prince George’s County and Baltimore city — could tilt the other way or wind up with a close vote on gay marriage.

Another key jurisdiction, Democratic Baltimore County, tends to vote conservative on social issues. Even while there is likely to be strong county support for Obama, Baltimore County residents could send a different message on same-sex marriage and tuition breaks for immigrants’ children.

The United States remains a tradition-bound country. Religious conservatism continues to hold sway in many parts of the nation. That’s been true since the Puritans settled in Massachusetts. Liberalism in American religious movements is slow to take root. Long-held biblical precepts dominate.

Maryland is no exception. From its Roman Catholic beginnings, this state has maintained an adherence to religious traditionalism.

That runs up against changing social mores on issues such as birth control, gay marriage, abortion and civil rights.

Reforms eventually may happen, but it often takes many decades to overcome religiously motivated objections.

So while supporters of the Civil Marriage Protection Act continue their dogged crusade for marriage equality in Annapolis, larger forces are at play.

The struggle may not succeed this year or for years to come, but the fight will continue.

Barry Rascovar is a State House columnist, communications consultant and a radio commentator on WYPR-FM, 88.1. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.